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Abstract

This study looks into issues evolving from dual-frame telephone surveys carried out in Taiwan. Some issues have been resolved, while others are still being explored. Directions of future studies are also suggested.
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey samples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presidential election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the landline phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) Investigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of IT and the changing times, Taiwan has been facing increasing coverage error in single-frame telephone surveys (whether by landline or cell phone) in recent years. Dual-frame telephone surveys can effectively reduce this deficiency. However, there is still no consensus on how to weight dualframe telephone samples in Taiwan.
This study uses data from a 2020 dual-frame telephone survey to compare several popular weighting approaches. The impact of these approaches on the variance and bias in both single-frame and dual-frame samples, as well as in overlap and screener designs, is discussed. Additionally, this study examines the differences between the estimates of the non-proportion dual-frame sample allocation to provide practical recommendations.
The results indicate the following: (1) if the sample allocation of the dualframe samples is in nearly equal proportions, minor differences occur in the weighting loss between the overlap and screener designs. Only the post-stratified estimating procedure reveals some differences in the estimates with other designs. (2) If the sample allocation of the dual-frame samples is in unequal proportions, such as one single-frame national sample and the others are only 1/3 or 1/2 of the former, then after calibration, the weighting loss is only slightly increased, and these approaches produce only tiny differences in the calibrated estimates between the combinations.

Abstract

Abstract

This research examines how TV reported the campaign and the candidates during Taiwan's first-ever presidential election in 1996. A content analysis of evening news coverage of six TV stations indicated that the state-owned broadcast TV stations were far more likely than the privately owned cable TV stations to give greater amount coverage and soundbites to the ruling party presidential and vice presidential candidates, using the ruling party officials as prince- pal news sources and contain more news favorable to the ruling party candidates than to other candidates.

Abstract

This paper examines how newspapers reported the campaign and candidates during the 2000 Presidential Election in Taiwan. Results of this study showed that state-owned newspapers were far more likely than privately owned newspapers to give greater coverage to the ruling party candidate, to use ruling party officials as news source, and to offer more news coverage favorable to the ruling party candidate than to other candidates.

Abstract

When predicting elections, researchers always face the difficulty that some respondents do not answer the question of vote choice. However, including only those who give a clear answer on vote choice, researchers might have the problem of selection bias. This article tries to assess the effects of selection bias on vote choice model, correct the wrong estimates resulting from the bias, and predict elections accurately. In this article, we apply a bivariate selection bias model-- developed by Dubin and Rivers-- to five different elections. The research findings show that if researchers include only those respondents who give a clear answer on vote choice question, they might take a risk of overestimating the effects of independent variables on vote choice. This is because respondents who give a clear answer on the question of vote choice may also have definite and strong political preferences, and they are quite different from those who do not give a clear answer. After correcting the estimating errors resulting from selection bias, we might predict election outcome accurately. The largest predicting error in four elections is 1.16%. It is less than sampling error. The model cannot do a better job in only one election. Fortunately, it does not do a worse job, either. The overall result shows that the selection bias model is a reliable tool in predicting elections.

Abstract

This paper examines how major newspapers reported the campaign and candidates during the 2004 Presidential election in Taiwan. This study is based on a content analysis of presidential stories of four largest newspapers-the China Times, the United Daily News, the Liberty Times, and the Apple Daily. Results of this study showed that the Liberty Times was far more likely than the other three newspapers to give greater coverage to the ruling party candidates, to use pan blue officials as news sources, and to offer more news coverage favorable to the ruling party candidates than to other candidates.

Abstract

This study examines how Taiwan Television Enterprise reported the campaign and candidates during the 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections in Taiwan. A content analysis of evening election news of the television company indicated that there were significant quantity bias, source bias, and presentation bias in its coverage of the first three presidential election campaigns. However, the television company was more balanced in its coverage of the 2008 presidential campaign. An in-depth interview of 10 reporters of the television company indicated that ownership structure has direct or indirect influence on election coverage of the television company. The change of ownership of the television company in 2007 has contributed to the achievement of more balanced media coverage in the 2008 presidential election.

Abstract

Homosexual rights and recognition of same-sex marriage involve important national policies and have received great attention from various fields. Due to the sensitivity of homosexual issues, previous studies have adopted qualitative approaches to addressing homosexual issues. Survey methods and polls open the door for these kinds of sensitive issues. Yet, facing the pressure of social norms, interviewees may hide their true opinions on homosexual issues, which leads to the accuracy problem of polling.
Thus, we combined list experiment and internet survey and tried to figure out the acceptance of homosexuality in Taiwan. The data showed that the acceptance of homosexuality among Taiwanese is more than 70%. By comparing the percentages of acceptance in direct and indirect questions, we found that most of answers given by the respondents are independent and undistorted under social pressure. Also, personality, religious factors and party identification still play important roles on the acceptance of homosexuality in Taiwan.