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Abstract
News and many public comments indicate that the ＂92 consensus＂ was the crucial issue to affect the result of Taiwan 2012 presidential election. This paper aims to study the effect of the 92 consensus on voters' choices in 2012. This paper reviews the core assumptions, boundary of application and analytical methods of the ＂issue voting＂ theory. Moreover, it focus on studying the impacts of the 92 consensus that are presumed to be endogenously correlated with party identification. Based on the approach of ＂studying the effects of a cause＂, as well as using the ＂2012 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study＂ dataset (TEDS2012-T and TEDS2012), this paper applies ＂propensity score matching＂ (PSM) method to investigate the issue effect of the ＂92 consensus＂ on voting choices during 2012 election. The results from the data analysis demonstrate that positions supportive of the ＂92 consensus＂ account for about twenty percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters in the period of the electoral campaign; meanwhile, positions oppositional to the ＂92 consensus＂ would contribute about thirteen percent of supporting rates for pro-Tsai voters. After the election the influential probability of the ＂92 consensus＂ was dramatically downsized to ten percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters; however, the percentage for pro-Tsai voters was slightly reduced to twelve percent. These findings provide more valid and credible estimates toward the influential probability of the ＂92 consensus＂ issue during the 2012 elections. Moreover, the statistical findings over various time-points also verify the successful transformation of the ＂92 consensus＂ to be identified as a salient issue across pro-Ma and pro-Tsai voters. It indeed achieved substantial influences toward the processes and result of 2012 presidential election.
Abstract
This study probes Taiwanese perception of social distance toward China and its impact on their political attitudes toward the issue of independence/unification. Taking advantage of social distance and social identity theories from social psychology, we hypothesize that the Taiwanese people with a smaller perceived social distance toward China would indicate an inclination for China unification; otherwise, they would prefer Taiwan’s independence. We modify the relational models theory to construct two variables to approximate social distance: we ask respondents first whether they regard China as a family member or a partner, and second, whether China views Taiwan as a family member or a partner. To examine our arguments, we utilize the “2019 Survey of the Image of China” to investigate the association between different types of relational cognitions and their impacts on cross-Strait relations. The findings by and large confirm the validity of the relational models theory, revealing that the Taiwanese electorate is prone to support unification when it perceives a closer social distance toward China. The results also demonstrate that those who are willing to accept China as an in-group tend to expect reciprocity from China. In contrast, those perceiving a greater social distance toward China exhibit ambivalent independence/unification preferences; they express less intimate attitudes but also do not exhibit great hostility toward China.
