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Abstract
The subjects of retrospective voting and issue voting have recently become the major focuses in the study of voting behavior. It is quite appropriate to investigate the models of retrospective voting and issue voting for the 2005 elections in Taiwan. Except for the emphasis on the factors of candidates and political parties in the traditional analysis of voting behavior, this study tries to explore the influence of retrospective voting and issue voting on the results of the 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties. By conducting empirical analysis, we have had some important findings as follow. First of all, both retrospective voting and issue voting are not the important factors in this given elections. Secondly, the factors of political parties and candidates are critical forces in influencing the outcome of the elections. Thirdly, the influence of the variable of political parties is powerful than the variable of candidates in the elections. Finally, the factors of ”Ma Ying-chiu phenomenon” and ”Chen Che-nan Scandal” are not as important as we expected intuitively.
Abstract
In 2008 presidential election, Taiwan for the first time appeared a significant gender gap in voting; in 2012 presidential election, the first female presidential candidate arose to challenge the incumbent. To compare the changes between these two elections, this study uses ”Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS)” panel data (2008P-2012) to observe the stability/change and the patterns of gender gap among the same set of voters. The analysis shows that women voters are more likely than men to change their votes from the KMT candidate to the DPP candidate. The transferring pattern of women voters accounts for the shrink of the voting gender gap comparing to the last election. In terms of the explanation for the voting change, we compare three factors, the party identification, candidate evaluation and issue effect. All of these three factors affect voting decisions to different extent, but in explaining gender difference of the voting change, only the candidate factor is significant. Voting change is mainly due to the female voters with stable party identification, transferring their votes from the KMT to DPP candidate. Among those female voters, some of them are stable DPP supporters who voted for Ma in the 2008 election and returned to vote for DPP candidate Tsai, and still some are stable KMT supporters who cross their party line to vote for their preferred DPP candidate Tsai. Comparing these two presidential elections with panel data, we can conclude that men are more likely to stick to their party identification in casting their ballots, whereas women are more likely to be influenced by other factors besides party identification. And this time, the other factor is the candidate. For those female voters who give the DPP candidate higher evaluation, voting transfer is a natural result.
Abstract
News and many public comments indicate that the ＂92 consensus＂ was the crucial issue to affect the result of Taiwan 2012 presidential election. This paper aims to study the effect of the 92 consensus on voters' choices in 2012. This paper reviews the core assumptions, boundary of application and analytical methods of the ＂issue voting＂ theory. Moreover, it focus on studying the impacts of the 92 consensus that are presumed to be endogenously correlated with party identification. Based on the approach of ＂studying the effects of a cause＂, as well as using the ＂2012 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study＂ dataset (TEDS2012-T and TEDS2012), this paper applies ＂propensity score matching＂ (PSM) method to investigate the issue effect of the ＂92 consensus＂ on voting choices during 2012 election. The results from the data analysis demonstrate that positions supportive of the ＂92 consensus＂ account for about twenty percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters in the period of the electoral campaign; meanwhile, positions oppositional to the ＂92 consensus＂ would contribute about thirteen percent of supporting rates for pro-Tsai voters. After the election the influential probability of the ＂92 consensus＂ was dramatically downsized to ten percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters; however, the percentage for pro-Tsai voters was slightly reduced to twelve percent. These findings provide more valid and credible estimates toward the influential probability of the ＂92 consensus＂ issue during the 2012 elections. Moreover, the statistical findings over various time-points also verify the successful transformation of the ＂92 consensus＂ to be identified as a salient issue across pro-Ma and pro-Tsai voters. It indeed achieved substantial influences toward the processes and result of 2012 presidential election.
