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Abstract

This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals' present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.

Keywords

party identification
party preference
party system
panel data
political generations

Abstract

The issue of invalid votes receives few scholarly attentions. Many consider invalid votes as the result of unintended behavior and do not explore the factors that may influence the incidence of invalid votes. We examine 37 elections of different levels between 1992 and 2008 in Taiwan by using panel data analysis. We find that the distribution of invalid votes are not random but are influenced by institutional and socioeconomic factors. Regarding institutional factors, the elections codes, the complexity of elections, the importance of elections, and years after the democratic transition are the main influencing factors. Years of education, the percentage of elders, population density, and percentage of indigenous citizens are the main socioeconomic variables that affect the incidence of invalid votes. The two strings of factors can explain about 34% of the variance in invalid votes. In addition to the pooled OLS model, we also employ spatial lag model and spatial error model. The two models show that the distribution of invalid votes exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation. In addition, some areas also exhibit spatial heterogeneity, which is likely to be attributed to the alienation of voters in the districts. We might need to pay special attention to these areas to enhance the quality of democracy.

Keywords

invalid vote
spatial autocorrelation
spatial heterogeneity
panel data analysis
spatial regression

Abstract

The framework of legislative institution and electoral systems have played a significant role in modern democracies. Every Countries based on the differents of historical, political, and social backgrounds, that adopted different legislative and electoral systems that usually result in particular political consequences. For examples, the representation of public opinions, the policy-making process, the competition between different political camps, and most importantly the formation of party systems. This study, by applying Japan as an example, tries to analyze the political and electoral influences made by its legislative framework and electoral system; especially the 2003 and 2004 Japanese Diet Elections under Junichiro Koizumi's governance. The importance of Japanese Diet relies not simply on the bicameral system regulated by its post-war Constitution, but also the various electoral systems for House of Councilors and House of Representatives. Because of the unique institutional establishment, the check and balance between two Houses has increased and become an importance issue in Japanese politics. With the assistance of individual panel data from Japanese Election Study (JES), and take advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, we observe this important institutional conflict empirically and effectively during the period of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Although the results reveal the substantial vote-flows between the ruling and the opposition parties in the House of Representatives and Councilors elections, which support the institution effect of check and balance, we also find that Koisumi charisma makes a considerable influence to offset the vote-flows from the ruling party to the opposition. In addition, we also find the factor of party identification influence the voters' decisions not only exist between subjects, but also within subjects over time; especially support toward the main opposition party DPJ. Most importantly, the result also reveals that the opposite party may become full-fledged during these elections.

Keywords

Japanese Diet Elections
bicameral system
electoral stability and change
panel data
hybrid method of fixed and random effect models

Abstract

This study uses the method of two-stage least squares of dynamic panel data models to examine the variables closely related to electoral stability and change in Taiwan, especially focusing on the impact of electoral reform of the Legislative Yuan in 2008 on voting behavior. To account for causal effects, the analysis includes 1,820 observations consisted of the 364 township and village-level units of five legislative elections from 1998 to 2012. The data sources come from the archive of election outcomes officially released by the Central Election Commission, and the statistical yearbooks published by county and city governments. The findings reveal that the variables of electoral reforms, types of electoral system, gender ratio, the level of educational attainment, and proportion of civil servants present statistically significant associations with the index of vote volatility. In addition, the factors of macroeconomic conditions, voting patterns, and geographical contexts emerge as statistically significant and in the anticipated directions. The empirical results demonstrate the Duverger’s law and also the self-fulfilling prophecy; i.e., the reforms of electoral system exert a profound effect of the stability and change of voting behavior. There are at least three academic implications that can be drawn from the outcome of this study. First, this study verifies the relationship between electoral system, party system, and electoral stability and change. Second, it empirically measures the vote volatility index which might be valuable for campaign strategies. Last, different from the qualitative and limited dependent variable models in the previous studies of political participation, this study takes advantage of a dynamic panel data model to assess the impact of electoral reforms on stability and change in voting behavior. Developing an electoral model that is both concise and accurate awaits future research.

Keywords

electoral stability and change
electoral reform
elections to the Legislative Yuan
dynamic panel data model
voting behavior