Journal of Electoral Studies

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Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and Byelection of Kaohsiung City
Tsung-han Liao
2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2

Abstract

Populism is deeply embedded in a democratic society, and a thin ideology composed of many different concepts affects people’s attitudes toward political elites and their vote choices. Based on voters’ populist inclination, this paper analyzes the voting in the recall of the mayor and the by-election of Kaohsiung City in 2020. In the two different voting periods, the voters’ populist inclination was affected by their demographic background and political attitudes.
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the byelection. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020- 2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.

Keywords

populism

recall

by-election

Han wave

Applying Brand Awareness to Election Prediction: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan's Election Survey Data
Chin-Ho Lee, Miin-Jye Wen, and Yin-Tai Chen
2010 / 05Volume 29, No.2

Abstract

Most survey institutions in Taiwan take directly inquiry method to get the candidate supporting ratio these days, such as ”If the election was held tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for?” However, nearly 30 percent of respondents won't show their opinions even before Election Day, and unfortunately, these respondents' may decide the election result. Therefore, the election prediction model which policy makers use to estimate the present and potential support ratio is regarded as important. Brand awareness is the extent that consumers are easy to remind or know some characteristics of the brand. It's a tool helps consumers to simplify the product information and to make the decision quickly. Hence, based on the brand awareness theory of marketing and information from polls, this paper develops an election prediction model which includes estimation of the unknown opinion response. This paper takes three examples to investigate the effective of a new model as follows: the 2005 Kuomintang party chairman election, 2008 legislative election of the second electoral district in Tainan, and 2008 president election. The findings reveal that an election prediction model constructed using brand awareness theory and voter's request indicator can fully reflect the voting intention and the election result even though it is influenced by changing internal and external environment. Therefore, this model performs well on both the accuracy of the model and the simplicity of the computation process.

Keywords

voter's request indicator

brand awareness

evoked set

brand recall

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