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Abstract
The subjects of retrospective voting and issue voting have recently become the major focuses in the study of voting behavior. It is quite appropriate to investigate the models of retrospective voting and issue voting for the 2005 elections in Taiwan. Except for the emphasis on the factors of candidates and political parties in the traditional analysis of voting behavior, this study tries to explore the influence of retrospective voting and issue voting on the results of the 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties. By conducting empirical analysis, we have had some important findings as follow. First of all, both retrospective voting and issue voting are not the important factors in this given elections. Secondly, the factors of political parties and candidates are critical forces in influencing the outcome of the elections. Thirdly, the influence of the variable of political parties is powerful than the variable of candidates in the elections. Finally, the factors of ”Ma Ying-chiu phenomenon” and ”Chen Che-nan Scandal” are not as important as we expected intuitively.
Abstract
This study aims to examine the dispute within literature concerning independent voters, differentiate independent voters in Taiwan, and therefore explore factors affecting their vote choices. Through analysis of the data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study, 2008 (TEDS2008P): Presidential Election, the preliminary findings are as follows: first, there are at least three major disputes in the literature, including the conceptualization and typology of independent voters, the measurement and operationalization of independent voters, and the explanation of why and how people become independent voters. Second, there is indeed a substantial distinction between pure independents and independent leaners in Taiwan. Third, short-term party preference and the overall evaluation of candidates are the two most significant factors affecting independents' vote choices. In addition, retrospective voting exerts different level of effect on these two independents. Specifically, while satisfaction with the incumbent plays more important role on independent leaners than on pure independents, overall evaluation of candidates seems to affect pure independents more than its counterpart. The explanatory power of party preference, however, is uniform to both kinds of voters.
