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Abstract
This study examines the shifts in voter turnout during Taiwan’s two referenda in 2018 and 2021, resulting from the transition from concurrent elections to separate ones. The research reveals a relationship between referendum turnout and the percentage of young voters when they are no longer held concurrently with general elections. In 2018, regions with a higher proportion of young voters experienced higher participation in referenda, whereas in 2021, areas with a lower percentage of young voters displayed increased turnout. Furthermore, even after controlling for the level of higher education among the population and the political party in power at the town levels, an inverse relationship between the proportion of young voters and turnout remained consistent. When referenda were decoupled from general elections, a higher percentage of young voters was associated with lower overall turnout, and the relationship between higher education and turnout was found to be insignificant. When comparing changes in turnout between cities not governed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a significant increase in turnout was observed in DPP-led areas in 2021. This suggests that when referenda were decoupled from general elections, the ruling party became more proactive in mobilizing voters. Furthermore, an analysis of approval votes indicates that higher turnout encourages more approval votes. However, in the context of reduced turnout during nonconcurrent elections, the proportion of approval votes also decreased accordingly.
Abstract
Most of studies on absentee voting in Taiwan have concentrated on normative and institutional analysis. This article brings empirical analysis onto focus by using survey as well as census data to examine the electoral behaviour of the electors who do not reside in their registered households, i.e. residential absentees. Research results-which cover several nationwide elections held between 2000 and 2012-confirm that residential absentees are indeed less likely to vote than are those who live in their registered households. However, the data show no compelling evidence for the claim that the result of the 2012 presidential election would have been turned around, had all of residential absentees turned out to vote. Due to the limitations of data, these findings can only be extrapolated to people who are residentially absent but still living in Taiwan. In order to make better projections about the possible impacts of the forthcoming absentee voting system, future research should therefore manage to include the other types of residential absentees into investigation.
Abstract
This article examines the effects of electoral competition on voter turnout conditional on the number of co-partisan candidates and incumbent reelection rates. Utilizing the advantages of SNTV-MMD systems such as the variations in the number of co-partisan candidates and incumbent reelection rates across districts, we conduct a data analysis of 486 districts of local councilors in Taiwan from 2005 to 2014, which are time-series crosssectional data. We analyze the data by employing multilevel beta regression models and the results show that, when the number of co-partisan candidates or incumbent reelection rates are relatively high, strong electoral competition significantly fosters voter turnout. The results have important implications for the effects of SNTV-MMD systems on voter turnout.
