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Abstract

Keywords

Aggregate data

Abstract

Managers of campaign headquarters often find it difficult to balance resource allocations between mobilization and propaganda divisions. The issue is critical in the battlefield but usually over-looked by academic circle. The study looks into the phenomenon using both aggregate and survey data and tries to explore the possibility of utilizing results of opinion polls for evaluating candidate performance. Analysis of aggregate data confirms the strength of mobilization but finds its role less significant. Its share of vote getting is shrinking as time changes. On the other hand, analysis of survey data shows that opinion polls can actually reflect the effectiveness of candidates' strategy in image building. However, if a re-search work want to get the most out of opinion polls it must plan ahead, hands in hands with campaign strategy, and put in more ingredients of network and communication behaviors.

Keywords

Election forecasting
campaign strategy
aggregate data
survey data

Abstract

In the Fifth Legislative Election in 2001, the Democratic Progressie Party (DPP) employed the vote-equalizing strategies in the Northern District of Kaohsiung. In the past, the DPP had used similar strategies only in Taipei, therefore whether this attempt in Kaohsiung would be successful was closely observed.
this study, based on the aggregate data analysis, shows that from the perspective of candidates seeking to renew their office, the effective of election districts, but less effective in other districts. The key factor, as the survey data analysis shows, that the DPP was able to win all three seats lies in the strong sense of party identification and sufficient campaign information. Lastly, the fact that both the KMT and the PFP had nominated too many candidates, caused the third DPP candidate Chu Shing -yu, to be elected.

Keywords

campaign strategies
effectiveness of vote-equalizing strategies
aggregate data analysis
survey data analysis