Journal of Electoral Studies

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Worried Taiwanese vs. Angry Taiwanese: Emotional Responses to Chinese Aggression and Their Impact on Ally Preferences
Kuan-chen Lee
2026 / 05Volume 29, No.2

Abstract

This study examines how Taiwanese citizens’ emotional responses to Chinese military aggression shape their preferences for alignment with the United States or China. Using data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), it analyzes the distinct roles of worry about armed conflict and anger toward Chinese military actions in influencing public attitudes. The results show that worry about war increases the likelihood of supporting closer ties with China, suggesting an accommodating stance, while anger toward the PLA motivates stronger preferences for alignment with the United States and, to a lesser extent, equidistance. A robustness check using a trichotomous measure of ally preference confirms these patterns. These findings underscore the importance of emotional responses and political identity in shaping foreign policy attitudes within Taiwan’s unique geopolitical context.

Keywords

ally preferences

political psychology

emotional responses

Chinese aggression

public opinion