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Abstract

Accurate forecast of elections is an exciting challenge for every student of electoral behavior. The aim of this article is to apply a model developed by Kelley and Mirer (1974) to the forecast of elections in Taiwan. Three models -- a "revised Kelley & Mirer model," "Candidate-oriented model," and "party-oriented model" are tested by applying data collected by the Election Study Center at the Chengchi University in three different elections. The tests indicate that the revised model is not as powerful as the author expected. Performance of other two models are not stable either. These results imply that in forecasting election we need not only individual level data, we also need to examine the macro environmental factors before we pick an appropriate model for the job.

Keywords

Forecast of elections
Candidate evaluation
Party identification