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Abstract
This article attempts to show that the social factor: the effect of social network is discernible and important in the 1989 Legislative Yuan election of Taipei City South district. Traditionally, analysis of Taiwanese voting behavior focused on the psychological factor. Party identification which shed light on the stability of voting behavior was often highly emphasized. By inspecting the interviweds' frequency of contacting and discussing with their friends or neighbors, it is ident-ified three locations in the social network. In the analysis of electorate's demographic characteristics and their political involve-ment as well as knowledge. It is found that a vertical association of mobilization exists between the three locations. Party identification dominates in the process of vote desicion, however, the vertical associ-ation help determine the formation of party preference. This paper explains how the social network influence the elector-ate, by observing the party preference volatility in the Taipei City South District. It is concluded that a part of electorate, who has not strong party preference, is changing their preference while old social network was replacing by new media and taking over by astute elite.
Abstract
The Japanese electoral system had adopted the single non-transferable vote (SNTV). Under SNTV, three to five members were elected from each constituency based on a plurality of votes. However, a series of corruption scandals since 1988 in Japan had damaged confidence in political system. As a result, Diet passed new measures transforming the middle-size district system into a mixed-member system in January 1994, combining single-member district & PR party lists. This article introduces the reform process and the new electoral system.It was the first time that Japanese House of Representatives adopted the single-member district & PR party lists parallel system on October 20, 1996. The article is intended to describe the electoral process and analyze its political consequences.The preliminary conclusions of the study are:(1) The new electoral system in Japan is of great advantage to LDP.(2) The new electoral system didn't correct the 'money politics' and transform the electoral competition from candidate-oriented to party and policy-oriented in Japan.
Abstract
I demonstrated change and continuity of party identification among the electorate in Taiwan by examining longitudinal survey data, and exploring factors affected people's party identification among different political generations. It was shown that voters among three generations had stable partisan affiliation toward the KMT in 1992, 1995, and 1998.Voters among elder generations had more stable party identification than voters among younger generation. As to the DPP supporters, the proportions increased continuously between 1992 and 1998, but the proportion of the DPP supporters was the lowest among voters of elder generation. When people's ethnic backgrounds were considered, I find that the distribution of the KMT identifiers was very stable among Taiwanese(Min-nan-jun),and the proportion of the DPP supporters among Taiwanese increased continuously. However, two new parties, i. e., the DPP and the NP, were less likely to attract first-generation Taiwanese. Few second-generation Taiwanese preferred the NP, but they were more likely to support the DPP than the KMT in 1998. Among Taiwanese, third-generation voters were more likely to support the NP. As to mainlanders, there were more than 80% of them identified themselves as the KMT partisans, the proportion decreased to 40% in 1995 but it rebounded to 60% in 1998.The proportion of the DPP partisans among mainlanders was less than 5% between 1992 and 1998.The proportion of the NP identifiers fluctuated dramatically among mainlanders between 1995 and1998. As to voters among three political generations, I demonstrated that Chinese identity was an important factor to determine first-generation voters' KMT identification. First-generation voters decided their DPP identification by their Taiwan-independence stance. As to voters among second generation, their stances on the issue of unification with mainland China versus Taiwan independence tended to determine whether they identified themselves as KMT or as DPP partisans. As voters among third generation, they were more likely to employ their Taiwan-independence stance and Taiwanese identity to decide whether they want to support the DPP.
Abstract
It has been demonstrated that, as an indicator of the fragmentation of political system, the effective number of candidates running under the single nontransferable vote (SNTV) system converges to M+1, where M is district magnitude. How these candidates are to be grouped into parties, however, remains unanswered. I propose that the effective number of parties under SNTV is determined by electoral system as well as the voters' preference profiles. When the voters are idealistic and select the candidates according to their issue positions, the centrifugal tendency of SNTV fosters M+1 effective parties. When the voters care only about absolute gains, the need to maintain a stable distributive coalition encourages one-party dominance, unless regionalism hinders the formation of a grand national party. Using the percentage of agricultural population to approximate the proportion of realist voters, I show that this formula explains well the evolution of party systems in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Abstract
Institutions are usually embedded in each other and can hardly be analyzed independently. Existing studies, by aggregating the effect of individual institutions to assess their overall influence, could underestimate the impact at the systematic level when the institutions are considered together. Multipartism, for instance, may shorten government duration under the parliamentary system, but enhance the administrative power if presidentialism is used. In line with existing institutional studies, this paper derives several propositions regarding the impact of institutional configuration on political stability. Bipartism can result to diverse outcomes when it is used under parliamentarism or presidentialism, and electoral cycle plays a crucial role in determining political stability when a president is in charge. These propositions are then applied to forecast Taiwan's constitutional future. The latest constitutional revision set up a high threshold for further amendment to be reconsidered by the people, making semi-presidentialism and a single-member-district biased electoral system the defining features of Taiwan's constitutional structure. Since this combination could lead to the greatest and the lowest stability, electoral cycle will be critically influencing Taiwan's constitutional prospect.
Abstract
This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals' present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.
