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Abstract

In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.

Abstract

Populism is deeply embedded in a democratic society, and a thin ideology composed of many different concepts affects people’s attitudes toward political elites and their vote choices. Based on voters’ populist inclination, this paper analyzes the voting in the recall of the mayor and the by-election of Kaohsiung City in 2020. In the two different voting periods, the voters’ populist inclination was affected by their demographic background and political attitudes.
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the byelection. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020- 2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.

Abstract

This study looks into issues evolving from dual-frame telephone surveys carried out in Taiwan. Some issues have been resolved, while others are still being explored. Directions of future studies are also suggested.
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey samples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presidential election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the landline phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) Investigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.

Abstract

This study examines the shifts in voter turnout during Taiwan’s two referenda in 2018 and 2021, resulting from the transition from concurrent elections to separate ones. The research reveals a relationship between referendum turnout and the percentage of young voters when they are no longer held concurrently with general elections. In 2018, regions with a higher proportion of young voters experienced higher participation in referenda, whereas in 2021, areas with a lower percentage of young voters displayed increased turnout. Furthermore, even after controlling for the level of higher education among the population and the political party in power at the town levels, an inverse relationship between the proportion of young voters and turnout remained consistent. When referenda were decoupled from general elections, a higher percentage of young voters was associated with lower overall turnout, and the relationship between higher education and turnout was found to be insignificant. When comparing changes in turnout between cities not governed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a significant increase in turnout was observed in DPP-led areas in 2021. This suggests that when referenda were decoupled from general elections, the ruling party became more proactive in mobilizing voters. Furthermore, an analysis of approval votes indicates that higher turnout encourages more approval votes. However, in the context of reduced turnout during nonconcurrent elections, the proportion of approval votes also decreased accordingly.

Abstract

How did Han Kuo-yu shoot from political obscurity to become the mayor of Kaohsiung and then the KMT presidential candidate? This paper argues that Han’s rise was grounded in his populist appeal. Han told voters that things should have been better for ordinary people except that establishment politicians had consistently failed to represent their interests. This paper examines Han’s populist rhetoric with an in-depth look at Han’s statements in the 2017 KMT party chair election and 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral campaign. It then looks at public opinion data from the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election to see whether voters absorbed that rhetoric. There are, in fact, clear echoes of Han’s populist rhetoric in the survey data. Acceptance of Han’s rhetoric was associated with a vote for Han, even among voters who were not traditional KMT constituents. That is, Han’s populist rhetoric played a central role in expanding his appeal and enabling him to secure an unlikely victory in Kaohsiung.

Abstract

The bitter rivalries that used to occur only among political elites have now reached the everyday lives of the mass public. In particular, the results of presidential elections have been driven as much by affective conflict between partisans as by policy debates. The present study explores affective polarization in Taiwan through negative partisanship. Data from presidential elections between 2004 and 2020 provide evidence for the effect of negative partisanship on election results. The study found that starting in 2012, there has been a rapid increase in negative views among partisans in both main parties toward the opposing party. In the 2020 presidential election, more than 40% of both Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters showed negative partisanship towards the opposing party. Furthermore, supporters of both parties had the lowest ever favorability scores for the opposing party. Even when traditional party identification and support for independence or reunification are controlled, negative partisanship still has significant explanatory power. The decision to vote for a candidate from a particular party in presidential elections depends not only on one’s long-term identification with that party but also on whether one harbors a strong negative opinion towards the opposing party.

Abstract

This explorative study employs a large-scale analysis of individual turnout data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential and legislative elections, alongside the 2018 local elections and referenda in Taiwan, to advance our understanding of Indigenous voting behaviour in three ways. Firstly, we challenge the conventional wisdom that Indigenous voters exhibit lower turnout rates compared to the non-Indigenous electorate. Secondly, we further compare turnout differences among Highland and Lowland voters. Lastly, we analyse turnout variations across different types of ballots: national and local elections and referendum
bills. Contrary to prevailing international and domestic norms, we provide strong empirical evidence that Indigenous voters are diverse and dynamic in their voting behaviours, and this diversity extends not only in comparison to the Han voters but also within the Indigenous population, interacting with the different types of elections.

Abstract

Since the 1990s, many countries have adopted various quota systems to promote higher levels of women’s political representation. International research confirm that such quota systems have had a positive impact on increasing women’s political participation. In Taiwan, studies on women’s political participation also shown that reserved seats for women have significantly boosted their involvement in politics. However, few existing studies have specifically focused on the political participation of indigenous women. The election results from 2002 to 2018 indicate a growing number of indigenous women running for and being elected to office. But what factors explain this increase in political participation? Is it the reserved seats for women system, political dynamics, or the background characteristics of the candidates that play the key role in encouraging indigenous women's involvement in politics? This paper analyzes data from local councilor elections between 2002 and 2018 and finds that most female candidates have prior experience in community involvement or political-related activities. Additionally, KMT nomination or recommendation, as well as incumbent status, significantly contribute to the election chances and vote share of indigenous female candidates. This paper analyzes the data of local councilor elections from 2002 to 2018, and finds that most of the female candidates have experience in community involvement or political-related experiences. KMT nomination or recommendation, as well as incumbent status, contribute to the election chances and vote share of indigenous female candidates, which aligns with existing research on women councilors at the national and municipal levels. The impact of the reserved seats for women system is reflected in its role in motivating participation. In line with previous findings on ethnic voting patterns, a candidate’s ethnicity is also significantly associated with their election chances and vote share, with Amis, Paiwan, and Atayal ethnic background positively influencing electoral performance. Lastly, female characteristics and breaking gender stereotypes through effective political performance help improve the election outcomes for indigenous female candidates.

Abstract

This study attempts to unravel mnemonic manipulation in electioneering. The results of the 2018 nine-in-one election in Taiwan can be explained by the “Han tide” and its spillover effects, and so this study aims to decipher the emergence of the Han tide using a memory-studies approach. While admitting that other social factors played a role in the formation of the Han tide, this study suggests that four elements were found in Han’s electioneering: (re)defining the present as negative and (re)directing attention to the future, switching the commemorative focus from politics to economics, encouraging people to forget the political past and embrace the economic future, and employing an awakening narrative to evoke change. Moreover, four additional aspects were observed in the Han tide: canceling the challenges of counter-narratives by redirecting people’s attention, solving the issue of lacking a shared past with Kaohsiung City, downplaying and/or editing “out” the negative aspects of “our side,” and degrading the mnemonic framing and nostalgic capital of the Democratic Progressive Party. Although scholars of memory studies have shed light on politics in memory, this study argues that memory in politics should also be emphasized by investigating more empirical cases.

Abstract

Abstract

This research examines how TV reported the campaign and the candidates during Taiwan's first-ever presidential election in 1996. A content analysis of evening news coverage of six TV stations indicated that the state-owned broadcast TV stations were far more likely than the privately owned cable TV stations to give greater amount coverage and soundbites to the ruling party presidential and vice presidential candidates, using the ruling party officials as prince- pal news sources and contain more news favorable to the ruling party candidates than to other candidates.

Abstract

Farmers' Associations are meant to be self-government associations dedicated to the service of farmers. However, in reality Farmers' associations have taken on strong political overtones, and their effect-tiveness has been affected by this. In elections for all levels of public officials, Farmers' Association have actively campaigned for political parties and/or local factions. In elections for officers of the Farmers' associations, political forces have used bribery and violence to try to gain control of the associations. This has causes the Farmers' associations to become the site of political struggles, and in the process the welfare of farmers has become merely an empty slogan. How have Farmers' Associations evolved into political bodies? What is the goal of the political forces associated with Farmers' Associations? How do Farmers' Associations use their originations to mobilize support? Have the recent runs on Farmers' Associations credit unions been related to politics? These are the main questions that this paper will address. The political overtones of Farmers' Associations dates to the Japanese era. The colonial government treated Farmers' Associations as a tool to control political attitudes and recover capital from farmers' villages. The post-war KMT government overhauled the system, but the basic idea of controlling farmers through Farmers' Associations did not change. The KMT used the Farmers' Associations' credit unions to gain the support for local factions, which gained a local monopoly of politi-cal and financial resources. These abundant financial resources and the well developed orginational resources the Farmers' Association pos-sessed assured that local political forces would compete to participate in the system. The Taichung County and Kaohsiung County examples prove that both pro-KMT and anti-KMT factions strove to gain control of the Farmers' Associations. However, the involvement of politics in Farmers' Associations has downgraded the original mission to serve farmers. Recification of this problem would require a process of depo-liticization and the independence of credit unions from the Farmers' associations.

Abstract

The study checks the accuracy of some items of the household Regis-tration records in Taiwan using data from the 1990 and the 1994 National Health Surveys and finds that the discrepancy rate between the marital status records and survey results is about 6.9%. There is also 25.6% inaccurate rate for the records of educational level. If counted by per-son, less than 90% of the people currently live in their registered households, over 10% of the people do not live in their registered households, and over 10% of the people live in places which they do not registered. If counted by household, only about 55% of the records are correct in both household registration and persons live in, other 45% are either greater or less than the registration record in terms of the number of people living in the household, or even the number is correct the persons' names do not match. This type of inaccuracy varies in different areas and also depends on the size of the household. The study also looks into the distribution of the household size using the 1990 census data and finds that it is not feasible to have a representative sample if households are selected first with equal prabability and one adult respondent is then selected within the household due to the fact that a large portion of the younger people are clustered in bigger size households which account for only a much smaller portion of the total number of the households.

Abstract

Taiwan's democratization has directly challenged the KMT's auth-oritarian political regime and induced polarized national indentity con-frontation. This phenomena has become a major force in party politics in Taiwan. This paper has adopted the suvery datd as a result of a special research project commissioned by National Science Com-mission in 1994 to be reference of analysis. It is carried out on the basis of independence v.s. unification attitude of the constituency, comparing several recent suvery data distribution on the independence v.s. unification issue, and analyzing social basis of independence v.s. unification attitude, eithnic identuty, suport for political party, politi-cal trust, orientation of democratic values, and participation in elec-tion etc. as well as the relations between these variables and indepen-dence v.s. unification attitude, so as to ascertain whether independence v.s. unification issue being the key variable in the process of Taiwan's political democratization.

Abstract

Although Taiwan's direct presidential election was held first time in the history in 1996 under plurality system, the controversy over the adoption of plurality or runoff election has never concluded. During the debates, much attention has been drawn to the linkage between the elec-toral systems and the president's constitutional power. From another point of view, this study attempts to show that different electoral systems could also have different influences on party system as well as voting behavior. This study can be divided into three parts: first of all, it employs Social Choice Theory to examine the theoretical differences between these two electoral systems; secondly, it utilize empirical data to analyze the electoral results of these two systems, and finally, it shows these two electoral systems could lead to quite different consequences on party system and voting behavior.

Abstract

A study of strategies of newspaper advertising operated by three main political parties, Komingtang(KMT) , Democratic Pro-gressive Party(DPP) and Chinese New Party(CNP), in the 1995 leg-islators election of Taiwan was conducted, in which message perfor-mances including themes, visual factors and copy writing skill as well as media strategies, scheduling and vehicle selecting, were ex-amined. The study found that ── The main content of KMT's advertisments was the negatives. KMT tried to attack the other parties by advertising, but the visual and copy writing skill were poor. KMT also failed to present selling propositions in advertisements. In vehicle selecting, KMT used many kinds of newspapers to carry advertisements, but the newspa-pers of United Daily Group were excluded. In scheduling strategy, KMT launched all of the advertisements in the period of eleven days before the day of voting. The focus of DPP's advertising was the rebuilding of image, from sadness to happiness. With excellent visualization , yet the copy didn't stress a major idea clearly and didn't emphasize the voter's ultimate benefit──the needs of safety. DPP took a tactics of steady media scheduling and it limited on the vehicle selecting, in which no government-owned and KMT-owned newspapers were used. The tactics of CNP's advertising are image building and attack-ing opposers, KMT and DPP. Only the newspapers of United Daily Group and China Times Group were used to put out advertisements. Among these newspapers, CNP prefered the United Daily News and the United Evening News. It testified to the 'effect of context', namely a ideological matching between advertiser and media.

Abstract

During the last 50 years. as election polls in the U. S. and in most other countries have proliferated. there has been an ongoing controversy over their electoral effects. Their perceived influence on election outcomes has been sufficient to lead to calls for legislation restricting the publishing of opinion polls during a campaign, restrictions that already exist in countries as diverse as Germany. Japan, France, South Korea. and Brazil (McAllister and Studlar 1991; Mutz. 1992) . These restrictions suggest that pre-election polls have some effects on election outcomes, or at least that some people suspect some effects and think the results could. more or less, hurt the fairness of an election. Counter arguments conclude that perception of public opinion has little impact on vote preference (Asher 1992, Marsh. 1983; Merkle 1991 ) . Many believe that traditional factors such as affect. candidates, issue. party. etc ., are the factors that determine vote preference rather than the perceptions of public preference ( Niemi and Weishberg, 1993 ) . Despite these arguments. evidence from surveys and experimental studies remains inconclusive. One of the earliest discussions of polls' effect on voting. by Lazarsfeld. Berelson. and Gaudet (1948) , found many voters attempting to sense the direction of public opinion and the outcome in order to vote "with the winner. " Follow-up work (Berelson. Lazarsfeld, and McPhee. 1954) revealed that a bandwagon effect (perception guiding preference) and a projection explanation (preference guiding perception) carried about equal weight in presidential election voting. Some laboratory studies of artificial elections coupled with bogus poll results produced an "underdog" effect of people shifting to the minority rather than majority view (Ceci. 1982, Fletias, 1971 ) . Evidence from the 1988 NES Super Tuesday Study showed that some voters vote for their second (or even lower) choice rather than their most preferred candidate in order to stop another candidate they like even less (Abramson et. ai, 1992 ) .

Abstract

Accurate forecast of elections is an exciting challenge for every student of electoral behavior. The aim of this article is to apply a model developed by Kelley and Mirer (1974) to the forecast of elections in Taiwan. Three models -- a "revised Kelley & Mirer model," "Candidate-oriented model," and "party-oriented model" are tested by applying data collected by the Election Study Center at the Chengchi University in three different elections. The tests indicate that the revised model is not as powerful as the author expected. Performance of other two models are not stable either. These results imply that in forecasting election we need not only individual level data, we also need to examine the macro environmental factors before we pick an appropriate model for the job.

Abstract

By using the following three variables: candidate image evaluation, expected capability in solving problem, and voter's party preference in predicting in 1996 presidential, this study demonstrates that the findings have been highly close to election result, with the difference falling within three percent. The model has also been proved stable in terms of its minor variable in prediction throughout the three different testing time frame. The major findings of this study can be summed up as following: first of all, a no-response voter could vote for the candidate who was ranked first in image evaluation; secondary, problem-solving capability will be the second electoral decisive factor for a no-response voter, if he/she could not decide which candidate scores highest; thirdly, if a no-response repondent can decide which candidate could be the most capable one, he/she would vote accordingly, otherwise he/she tends to vote for the candidate with the same party affiliation; fourthly, those could not be screened out through the preceding process are, to an extent, inclined to vote for the DPP's candidates than for the counterparts of the rest two parties.

Abstract

There are three major schools in the study of voting behavior, namely, sociological, sociopsychological and rational. Sociological school presents evidence that structural factors have high correlation coefficients between socioeconomic factors and voting choice. Sociopsychological school indicates that sociological factors are long term indirect determinants while party identification, candidate evalution, and issues are direct determinants. Rational approach suggests that the choices of vote is based on cost and benefit consideration. In this study, using post election survey data from the 1996 presidential election, three major approaches are tested thoroughly. In order to demonstrate that the integrated theory is better than those separated theories, seven possible combinations have been tested. The results show that psychological model is the best single model, ration and structural followed respectively. The best joint model is the combination of structural and psychological, followed by psychological and rational, and structural and rational. The intergrated model has slightly increased the explanatory power in terms of variance explained. Although the increase is not dramatic, the model maintains. This results suggest that the three approaches have overlapping explanation power, and no single model can claim to be the dominate model. Since the combined model can increase explanation power, thus, he integrated model should be emphasized in near future.