home
Home
navigate_next
Search results
Search results
- Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contribut
- Chia-hung Tsai
- 2018 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
- Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and Byelection of Kaohsiung City
- Tsung-han Liao
- 2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the byelection. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020- 2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.
Keywords
- Comparisons of Estimation Efficiencies among Various Dual-frame Telephone Survey Weighting Procedures
- Yung-tai Hung
- 2021 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey samples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presidential election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the landline phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) Investigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.
- Turnout of Referendum Without Concurrent Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2021 Referenda in Taiwan
- Po-chun Wu and Yung-ming Hsu
- 2023 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- The Impact of Han Kuo-yu's Populist Rhetoric in the 2018 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election
- Nathan F. Batto
- 2021 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Negative Partisanship and Voting Choice: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan, 2004-2020
- Hung-i Lee and Yu-tzung Chang
- 2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- It’s Not That Simple: A Large-scale Explorative Analysis of Indigenous People’s Voter Turnout in Taiwan
- Jinhyeok Jang, Daniel Davies
- 2025 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
bills. Contrary to prevailing international and domestic norms, we provide strong empirical evidence that Indigenous voters are diverse and dynamic in their voting behaviours, and this diversity extends not only in comparison to the Han voters but also within the Indigenous population, interacting with the different types of elections.
- Examining Factors Affecting the Election Outcomes of Indigenous Women Running for Local Councilors in Taiwan
- Chiung-chu Lin
- 2024 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
Since the 1990s, many countries have adopted various quota systems to promote higher levels of women’s political representation. International research confirm that such quota systems have had a positive impact on increasing women’s political participation. In Taiwan, studies on women’s political participation also shown that reserved seats for women have significantly boosted their involvement in politics. However, few existing studies have specifically focused on the political participation of indigenous women. The election results from 2002 to 2018 indicate a growing number of indigenous women running for and being elected to office. But what factors explain this increase in political participation? Is it the reserved seats for women system, political dynamics, or the background characteristics of the candidates that play the key role in encouraging indigenous women's involvement in politics? This paper analyzes data from local councilor elections between 2002 and 2018 and finds that most female candidates have prior experience in community involvement or political-related activities. Additionally, KMT nomination or recommendation, as well as incumbent status, significantly contribute to the election chances and vote share of indigenous female candidates. This paper analyzes the data of local councilor elections from 2002 to 2018, and finds that most of the female candidates have experience in community involvement or political-related experiences. KMT nomination or recommendation, as well as incumbent status, contribute to the election chances and vote share of indigenous female candidates, which aligns with existing research on women councilors at the national and municipal levels. The impact of the reserved seats for women system is reflected in its role in motivating participation. In line with previous findings on ethnic voting patterns, a candidate’s ethnicity is also significantly associated with their election chances and vote share, with Amis, Paiwan, and Atayal ethnic background positively influencing electoral performance. Lastly, female characteristics and breaking gender stereotypes through effective political performance help improve the election outcomes for indigenous female candidates.
- Unravelling Mnemonic Manipulations in Electioneering: Investigating Mind Engineering in the Han Camp during the 2018 Election
- Hsin-yi Yeh
- 2024 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study attempts to unravel mnemonic manipulation in electioneering. The results of the 2018 nine-in-one election in Taiwan can be explained by the “Han tide” and its spillover effects, and so this study aims to decipher the emergence of the Han tide using a memory-studies approach. While admitting that other social factors played a role in the formation of the Han tide, this study suggests that four elements were found in Han’s electioneering: (re)defining the present as negative and (re)directing attention to the future, switching the commemorative focus from politics to economics, encouraging people to forget the political past and embrace the economic future, and employing an awakening narrative to evoke change. Moreover, four additional aspects were observed in the Han tide: canceling the challenges of counter-narratives by redirecting people’s attention, solving the issue of lacking a shared past with Kaohsiung City, downplaying and/or editing “out” the negative aspects of “our side,” and degrading the mnemonic framing and nostalgic capital of the Democratic Progressive Party. Although scholars of memory studies have shed light on politics in memory, this study argues that memory in politics should also be emphasized by investigating more empirical cases.
- Political bias in the news coverage of Taiwan's first presidential election: a comparative analysis of broadcast TV and cable TV news
- Ven-hwei Lo, Pu-tsung King, Ching-ho Chen, and Hwei-lin Huang
- 1995 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Farmers' associations and local politics: the cases of Taichung county and Kaohsiung county
- Teh-fu Huang and Hua-tsung Liu
- 1995 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- The use of household registration records in sampling sureys
- Yung-Tai Hung
- 1995 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Independence vs. reunification issues and voting behavior in Taiwan: an analysis of gubernatorial and mayoral elections in 1994
- Wen-chun Chen
- 1995 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Plurality vs. Majority: A Comparative Study of Direct Presidential Elections
- Yeh-Lih Wang
- 1996 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Analysis of Political Parties' Strategies of Newspaper Advertising in Legislators Election of Taiwan, 1995
- Tzu-leong Cheng
- 1996 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Bandwagon, Underdog, and Strategic Voting: A Case Study of the 1992 U. S. Presidential Election
- Weng-jeng Peng
- 1996 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Forecasting Elections: Tests of Some
- I-chou Liu
- 1996 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- The 1996 Presidential Election Prediction: A Test of the Voting Behavior Model of No-Response Voters in the Poll
- Liu, Nien-hsia
- 1996 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- The Determinants of Voting Choice: Structural, Psychological, and Rational Factors
- Hung-der Fu
- 1996 / 11Volume 29, No.2