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Abstract
By using the following three variables: candidate image evaluation, expected capability in solving problem, and voter's party preference in predicting in 1996 presidential, this study demonstrates that the findings have been highly close to election result, with the difference falling within three percent. The model has also been proved stable in terms of its minor variable in prediction throughout the three different testing time frame. The major findings of this study can be summed up as following: first of all, a no-response voter could vote for the candidate who was ranked first in image evaluation; secondary, problem-solving capability will be the second electoral decisive factor for a no-response voter, if he/she could not decide which candidate scores highest; thirdly, if a no-response repondent can decide which candidate could be the most capable one, he/she would vote accordingly, otherwise he/she tends to vote for the candidate with the same party affiliation; fourthly, those could not be screened out through the preceding process are, to an extent, inclined to vote for the DPP's candidates than for the counterparts of the rest two parties.
Abstract
The most challenging in “Election Prediction” is that the an-swer is right there after voting; hence, the way of precise prediction affects an election greatly. In practical experience, with the way of “Direct Inquiry” to predict the rate of ballot, there is still a large amount of “refusal to answers,” “having no ideas” voters. Appar-ently, in comparison with the prediction and the result, the way un-derestimates the rate of ballot of each candidate. Hence, it is not easy to precisely predict the rate of ballot of each candidate. In 1997 Tainan Mayoral Election, seven candidates are all first rate, so that the campaign was keenly competitive. The study is based on the above-mentioned election to explore that voter’s be-havior-Candidate orientation is the most crucial factor for the elec-tion, and to construct “Voter’s Request Indicator” in “Election Pre-diction Model” referred to the idea of “Product Attribute” in Mar-keting Management. The design of “Voter’s Request Indicator” is mainly contributed by the candidates’ attributes (condition, charac-teristics). After the preliminary investigation, with the amount of voter’s request, we acquire the result of the rate of ballot of each candidate in accordance with adjustment, amendment and estima-tion. The model is verified several times, the result shows the goals of the easy process of operation and the fast precise reflection of the reality. Further, “Election Prediction” is defined in the unprof-itable sphere, so it can achieve the integration of the theories of Marketing Management and the election.
Abstract
Based on the theories of core demand, motivation, consumer behavior, and strategic contingencies from marketing management, this paper focused on applying marketing concepts to the prediction of voter's voting behavior. In this research, the idea of using ”product attribute” in marketing management, has constituted a good prediction model with ”Voter's Request Indicator”. Before the 1997 ”Many candidates participate in an election and there is only one elected” Tainan Mayoral Election, the said concept had been applied and indeed brought about effective voting rate prediction. Furthermore, the 1998 Municipal Election in An-Nan District in Tainan City has again proved the model of ” Voter's Request Indicator” can be applied to predict the results of ”Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot” election. A1though being limited by the current telecommunication system, the sampling can hardly be divided between Lin (a small community unit which consists of a number of families in the same neighborhood) or Li (a neighborhood). With some correction, according to some status quo, I compare the model with the data collected by experts, this paper has shown strong merits.Hence, in this research the following points will be explored:1. Can marketing management theory also be applied well in the prediction of voter's voting behavior in terms of ”Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot” municipal election?2. Is ”Candidates' Attributes” the premise or blood relationship, place connection, popularity can be one important cause while voting?3. Can using the model be a true reaction of status quo, with proficiency, compared with ”Many candidates participate in an election and there is only one elected” election?4. Three days before the election, voters' strategic voting might effect the results greatly, especially ”Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot” How do election predictions adjust to the situation?5. What will be the future development of the model?This paper has come to the conclusion that using the model of ”Voter's Request Indicator” indeed can predict voter's voting behavior correctly.
Abstract
This thesis using individual level survey data to analyze the developingand changing situation of independent voters in Taiwan from 1989through 1999.In particular,this thesis examines changing party identificationand social background of independent voters,changing political involvementamong independent voters,changing vote intentions of independentvoters,and the facts which have influenced the develop of independentvoters.Our research outcomes have shown that although the percentageof independent voters in Taiwan has declined,in recent years thistrend seems to have reversed,The percentage of independent voters hasactually been influenced by changes in the electoral system.There are differencesin social background between independents and party identifiers.The degree of political involvement of independent voters is lower thanthat of party identifiers.Their evaluation of candidates and parties is alsolower than those of party identifiers.They tend to stay neutral to all politicalissues.when making their voting decisions,they tend to consider theconditions of the candidates,rather than voting by the boundary ofparties.However,we also discover that independent voters are graduallyevolving from”apathetic independent voters”,with lower politicalknowledge and lower political involvement,to”ideal independentvoters”,with higher political knowledge and higher political involvement.Looking to the future,we can predict that the percentage of independentvoters will likely decline.With the continuing development ofdemocracy and the increasing maturity and stability of party politics,weexpect that the percentage of party indentifiers will grow.However,thisdoes not necessarily mean that the percentage of independent voters willdecline dramatically.Because of the expectation that independent votersare the ideal citizens,we believe that there are still a certain percentage ofpeople who will consider themselves as independent voters.Hence,independentvoters increasingly will not be”apathetic independent voters”who know nothing about politics.On the contrary,they will become”ideal citizens”who keep highly concerned about politics and make politicaldecisions according to their own subjective attitudes.
Abstract
This Study discusses the differences between journalists and political scientists while observing and predicting elections, and examines whether there are discrepancies between the media's schema and the public's interest during campaign. Overall speaking, political scientists are able to predict or explain voting behavior months before the election, using demographic variables such as partisanship, unification/independence stance, ethnic identity, gender, and age with considerable stability and accuracy (Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992; Rosenstone, 1983). However, from the perspective of media report, candidates' support ratings rise and fall along with campaign strategies and news events, public opinion seems to be variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, this article would like to first provide a plausible explanation to the above dilemma. Subsequently, the author would like to examine the media focus during campaign to see if their coverage reflects the issues people deem important. Empirical data shows that the media operates on its own logic, and there is a considerable gap between media campaign coverage and the issues people care most about.
Abstract
When predicting elections, researchers always face the difficulty that some respondents do not answer the question of vote choice. However, including only those who give a clear answer on vote choice, researchers might have the problem of selection bias. This article tries to assess the effects of selection bias on vote choice model, correct the wrong estimates resulting from the bias, and predict elections accurately. In this article, we apply a bivariate selection bias model-- developed by Dubin and Rivers-- to five different elections. The research findings show that if researchers include only those respondents who give a clear answer on vote choice question, they might take a risk of overestimating the effects of independent variables on vote choice. This is because respondents who give a clear answer on the question of vote choice may also have definite and strong political preferences, and they are quite different from those who do not give a clear answer. After correcting the estimating errors resulting from selection bias, we might predict election outcome accurately. The largest predicting error in four elections is 1.16%. It is less than sampling error. The model cannot do a better job in only one election. Fortunately, it does not do a worse job, either. The overall result shows that the selection bias model is a reliable tool in predicting elections.
Abstract
This article attempts to study the keys affecting county magistrate (city mayor) elections, accumulating potential factors across all elections from 1989 to 2001, including political environment, governmental relations, local economy, crime rate, candidate personal background, political landscape, and incumbent advantage, etc. We hope to identify and built a model of electoral success, and apply the model on the 2005 county magistrate election to check its validity. We found that nomination by the two major parties and incumbent advantage are the primary factors affecting the results of county magistrate elections. Experiences as legislators and provincial legislators also have significant positive influence on winning. On the other hand, the main factor affecting an incumbent county magistrate's chances of reelection is whether he or she got majority support in his or her first term. This shows the importance of political landscape on county magistrate elections.
