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Abstract

Japanese party politics witnessed a dramatic change in 1993. The then ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had dominated the Japanese politics since 1955, lost its majority seats in the 1993 House of Representatives election. Three years later, however, the LDP staged a comeback and played the major role in forming the new coalition government. It managed to maintain this control in the 2000 House election. We are curious about how Japanese voters responded to the turmoil of Japanese party system during this period. Taking advantage of a panel data of the Japanese Election Study (JES), we explore the dynamics of electoral stability and change of the LDP supporters during the 1993, 1996 and 2000 House elections. Among several Markov chain models analyzed in this paper, we find that the Black and White model, a special case of the Mover-Stayer model, fits the JES panel data best. Specifically, this model splits subjects into two latent subgroups with maximum intragroup homogeneity and intergroup heterogeneity, each of which has its own estimated transition probabilities. The first subgroup (“stayers”), which consists of about 48.28% of the panel, always maintains its LDP or non-LDP party preference without any change. The second subgroup, which consists of about 51.72% of the panel, however, moves randomly. In 1993, 37% of “stayers” supported the LDP while 40.46% of “random movers” supported the LDP. In 1996 election, half of this 40.46% of “random movers” shifted away from the LDP while the other 59.54% non-LDP supporters shifted to the LDP. As a result, the LDP enjoyed a net gain of 4.93% in total votes in 1996. Since the Black and White model has reached its steady state after the 1996 transition, it indicates little net change in year 2000’s election.

Keywords

panel data
electoral stability and change
Markov chain
habitual voting
Black and Withe model

Abstract

How voters cast their votes in successive elections determines not only the fate of candidates but also the rise and fall of political parties and sometimes even causes party system changes. The subject of electoral stability and change, due to its significance in theory and practice, has long attracted the attention of political scientists around the world. Despite the voluminous publications cumulated so far, however, there are still heated debates regarding how best to model this dynamic electoral process and to estimate the amount of changes. The purpose of this paper is two-folds. First, it clarifies some confusion in the literature caused by its failing to distinguish gross change from net change and to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of various types of data in evaluating these two changes. After pointing out how panel data prevail over repeated cross-sections and aggregate data in estimating both forms of changes, we then proceed to identify a statistical model that best fits the categorical measurement of electoral changes dominant in panel surveys. The second part of this paper, therefore, pinpoints discrete-time discrete-state Markov chain models as ideal tools for describing the dynamic electoral process and further analyzing the sources of change patterns. The transition probabilities of Markov models coincide with the theoretical concepts of flow-of-the-votes and reflect the way state dependence shapes the trajectories of electoral changes. Finally, we apply a mixed Markov model to the three-wave Japanese Election Study (JES) panel data set to illustrate the potential of this technique.

Keywords

electoral stability and change
straight-and split-ticket voting
dynamic process
panel data
gross change
net change
Markov chain models

Abstract

The framework of legislative institution and electoral systems have played a significant role in modern democracies. Every Countries based on the differents of historical, political, and social backgrounds, that adopted different legislative and electoral systems that usually result in particular political consequences. For examples, the representation of public opinions, the policy-making process, the competition between different political camps, and most importantly the formation of party systems. This study, by applying Japan as an example, tries to analyze the political and electoral influences made by its legislative framework and electoral system; especially the 2003 and 2004 Japanese Diet Elections under Junichiro Koizumi's governance. The importance of Japanese Diet relies not simply on the bicameral system regulated by its post-war Constitution, but also the various electoral systems for House of Councilors and House of Representatives. Because of the unique institutional establishment, the check and balance between two Houses has increased and become an importance issue in Japanese politics. With the assistance of individual panel data from Japanese Election Study (JES), and take advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, we observe this important institutional conflict empirically and effectively during the period of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Although the results reveal the substantial vote-flows between the ruling and the opposition parties in the House of Representatives and Councilors elections, which support the institution effect of check and balance, we also find that Koisumi charisma makes a considerable influence to offset the vote-flows from the ruling party to the opposition. In addition, we also find the factor of party identification influence the voters' decisions not only exist between subjects, but also within subjects over time; especially support toward the main opposition party DPJ. Most importantly, the result also reveals that the opposite party may become full-fledged during these elections.

Keywords

Japanese Diet Elections
bicameral system
electoral stability and change
panel data
hybrid method of fixed and random effect models

Abstract

This study uses the method of two-stage least squares of dynamic panel data models to examine the variables closely related to electoral stability and change in Taiwan, especially focusing on the impact of electoral reform of the Legislative Yuan in 2008 on voting behavior. To account for causal effects, the analysis includes 1,820 observations consisted of the 364 township and village-level units of five legislative elections from 1998 to 2012. The data sources come from the archive of election outcomes officially released by the Central Election Commission, and the statistical yearbooks published by county and city governments. The findings reveal that the variables of electoral reforms, types of electoral system, gender ratio, the level of educational attainment, and proportion of civil servants present statistically significant associations with the index of vote volatility. In addition, the factors of macroeconomic conditions, voting patterns, and geographical contexts emerge as statistically significant and in the anticipated directions. The empirical results demonstrate the Duverger’s law and also the self-fulfilling prophecy; i.e., the reforms of electoral system exert a profound effect of the stability and change of voting behavior. There are at least three academic implications that can be drawn from the outcome of this study. First, this study verifies the relationship between electoral system, party system, and electoral stability and change. Second, it empirically measures the vote volatility index which might be valuable for campaign strategies. Last, different from the qualitative and limited dependent variable models in the previous studies of political participation, this study takes advantage of a dynamic panel data model to assess the impact of electoral reforms on stability and change in voting behavior. Developing an electoral model that is both concise and accurate awaits future research.

Keywords

electoral stability and change
electoral reform
elections to the Legislative Yuan
dynamic panel data model
voting behavior