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Abstract

If China adopts economic, diplomatic, and military strategies toward Taiwan, do these strategies explain the differences in Taiwanese people’s image of China? Do these effects vary across different periods? Using “Image Theory” as the theoretical framework, we explore whether China’s provision of economic benefits, allowance of Taiwan’s diplomatic activities without restrictions, and removal of missiles targeting Taiwan contribute to the more favorable attitude of China among the Taiwanese public and subsequently shape their image of China. We further examine whether these policies had differing effects during the relatively positive cross-strait relations in 2014 compared to the strained relations in 2021. This study utilizes the 2014 and 2021 nationwide telephone surveys of Image of China and the “Ordered Logit Model” to analyze the correlations between the three policies and the image of China. Empirical findings reveal that in both years, individuals who felt more favorable toward China due to its provision of more significant economic benefits were also more likely to hold a positive image of China. However, China’s lack of restrictions on Taiwan’s diplomatic activities and removal of missiles targeting Taiwan failed to have any effect. The results suggest that offering economic benefits best explains the differences in Taiwanese people’s image of China. We conclude that because China has previously provided Taiwan with economic benefits, crossstrait economic ties remain challenging to decouple. Furthermore, under the premise of unification, economic benefits are the most feasible concession China can offer Taiwan, as it is unlikely to ease its diplomatic containment or military threats. Hence, economic benefits best explain the differences in Taiwanese perceptions of China.

Abstract

Based on the analysis of survey data collected on the eve of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, our study seeks to clarify the effects of the following factors on the island citizens' voting behavior: (1)Taiwanese identity, (2)expected benefits from cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (3)the perceived likelihood of China's use of military force. The findings show that, in addition to party identification, both Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on the islanders' vote choices. Unexpectedly, China's military threats played an insignificant role in voters' decisions. Because Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits are at the center of the political discourse on cross-Strait relations, future interactions between Taiwan and China will continue to play a significant role in the island's politics.