Journal of Electoral Studies

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Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and Byelection of Kaohsiung City
Tsung-han Liao
2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2

Abstract

Populism is deeply embedded in a democratic society, and a thin ideology composed of many different concepts affects people’s attitudes toward political elites and their vote choices. Based on voters’ populist inclination, this paper analyzes the voting in the recall of the mayor and the by-election of Kaohsiung City in 2020. In the two different voting periods, the voters’ populist inclination was affected by their demographic background and political attitudes.
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the byelection. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020- 2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.

Keywords

populism

recall

by-election

Han wave

The Impact of Han Kuo-yu's Populist Rhetoric in the 2018 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election
Nathan F. Batto
2021 / 11Volume 29, No.2

Abstract

How did Han Kuo-yu shoot from political obscurity to become the mayor of Kaohsiung and then the KMT presidential candidate? This paper argues that Han’s rise was grounded in his populist appeal. Han told voters that things should have been better for ordinary people except that establishment politicians had consistently failed to represent their interests. This paper examines Han’s populist rhetoric with an in-depth look at Han’s statements in the 2017 KMT party chair election and 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral campaign. It then looks at public opinion data from the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election to see whether voters absorbed that rhetoric. There are, in fact, clear echoes of Han’s populist rhetoric in the survey data. Acceptance of Han’s rhetoric was associated with a vote for Han, even among voters who were not traditional KMT constituents. That is, Han’s populist rhetoric played a central role in expanding his appeal and enabling him to secure an unlikely victory in Kaohsiung.

Keywords

populism

Han Kuo-yu

Kaohsiung mayoral election

campaign rhetoric