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摘要

This study examines how Taiwanese citizens’ emotional responses to Chinese military aggression shape their preferences for alignment with the United States or China. Using data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), it analyzes the distinct roles of worry about armed conflict and anger toward Chinese military actions in influencing public attitudes. The results show that worry about war increases the likelihood of supporting closer ties with China, suggesting an accommodating stance, while anger toward the PLA motivates stronger preferences for alignment with the United States and, to a lesser extent, equidistance. A robustness check using a trichotomous measure of ally preference confirms these patterns. These findings underscore the importance of emotional responses and political identity in shaping foreign policy attitudes within Taiwan’s unique geopolitical context.

摘要

This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens’ views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan- Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.