Current papers

  • Worried Taiwanese vs. Angry Taiwanese: Emotional Responses to Chinese Aggression and Their Impact on Ally Preferences
    This study examines how Taiwanese citizens’ emotional responses to Chinese military aggression shape their preferences for alignment with the United States or China. Using data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), it analyzes the distinct roles of worry about armed conflict and anger toward Chinese military actions in influencing public attitudes. The results show that worry about war increases the likelihood of supporting closer ties with China, suggesting an accommodating stance, while anger toward the PLA motivates stronger preferences for alignment with the United States and, to a lesser extent, equidistance. A robustness check using a trichotomous measure of ally preference confirms these patterns. These findings underscore the importance of emotional responses and political identity in shaping foreign policy attitudes within Taiwan’s unique geopolitical context.
    Kuan-chen Lee
  • The Impact of “Carrot” Strategies: Taiwanese Image of China
    If China adopts economic, diplomatic, and military strategies toward Taiwan, do these strategies explain the differences in Taiwanese people’s image of China? Do these effects vary across different periods? Using “Image Theory” as the theoretical framework, we explore whether China’s provision of economic benefits, allowance of Taiwan’s diplomatic activities without restrictions, and removal of missiles targeting Taiwan contribute to the more favorable attitude of China among the Taiwanese public and subsequently shape their image of China. We further examine whether these policies had differing effects during the relatively positive cross-strait relations in 2014 compared to the strained relations in 2021. This study utilizes the 2014 and 2021 nationwide telephone surveys of Image of China and the “Ordered Logit Model” to analyze the correlations between the three policies and the image of China. Empirical findings reveal that in both years, individuals who felt more favorable toward China due to its provision of more significant economic benefits were also more likely to hold a positive image of China. However, China’s lack of restrictions on Taiwan’s diplomatic activities and removal of missiles targeting Taiwan failed to have any effect. The results suggest that offering economic benefits best explains the differences in Taiwanese people’s image of China. We conclude that because China has previously provided Taiwan with economic benefits, crossstrait economic ties remain challenging to decouple. Furthermore, under the premise of unification, economic benefits are the most feasible concession China can offer Taiwan, as it is unlikely to ease its diplomatic containment or military threats. Hence, economic benefits best explain the differences in Taiwanese perceptions of China.
    Hong-da Siau, Chung-li Wu
  • Transnational Rally Effects during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis
    This study aims to examine the variation in individuals’ approval of their national leaders during national crises. Previous studies indicate that international crises tend to increase citizens’ approval of governments and political incumbents. Such a sudden spike in public approval during times of crisis reflects the “rally-round-the-flag” effect. However, since the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, existing research on the rally effect has shown mixed results. While most studies have focused on singlecountry surveys, few utilize cross-national survey data. To fill the gap in the literature, this study uses cross-national panel survey data and adopts multilevel models to test hypotheses about rally effects in the COVID-19 crisis. The findings of this study are threefold. Firstly, individuals with a heightened fear of the pandemic were more likely to support their national leaders. Secondly, in countries with higher COVID-19 death tolls, citizens tended to exhibit greater support for their national leaders. Thirdly, in countries with more stringent policies to cope with the pandemic, citizens demonstrated higher levels of support for their national leaders. Overall, this study facilitates a better understanding of the rally-round-the-flag effect, and it also provides important policy implications for political behavior in times of crisis.
    Zi-qing Zhao, Yen-pin Su