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Rational Choice Analysis of Voting Behavior in the 2020 Kaohsiung Mayoral Recall Election

  •  Hung-hua Tien
  •  2023 / 11  

    Volume 30, No.2

     

    pp.1-44

  •  10.6612/tjes.202311_30(2).0001

Abstract

This study aims to analyze voter behavior in the 2020 Kaohsiung mayoral recall election from the perspective of rational choice. Using an integrated framework of the theoretical models and empirical analysis (EITM), this study examines whether voter behavior varies due to differences in the electoral and recall systems, taking into account instrumental and consumptive motivations. By applying the settings of additively separable utility and lexicographic preferences, probit model and mediation models are used to analyze whether voters voted to support the recall or not. Data used is provided by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University. Empirical analysis indicates that party identification and the evaluation of mayoral performance are statistically significant in explaining voter’s decisions. In addition, the evaluation of mayoral performance is a mediator as well. Party identification not only exerts a direct effect on recall voting behavior but also indirectly influences whether voters support or oppose the recall through their evaluation. Furthermore, the study highlights that voters primarily consider party affiliation, indicating that party mobilization plays a significant role in the success or failure of recall efforts. Moreover, the effect of comprehensive evaluation on recall voting behavior is substantial, highlighting that political parties can accurately assess the likelihood of recall success only when they possess information about voters’ evaluations. Additionally, the direct effect of party identification is relatively small, while the indirect effect is substantial, indicating that more than half of the voter evaluations is mediated by partisan biases. The results of both empirical models suggest that an effective party mobilization and a compressive understanding of public opinion are keys to the success of a political party in a recall election, and the relative magnitudes of their direct and indirect effects warrant attention.