Journal of Electoral Studies

Issues

Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Turnout of Referendum Without Concurrent Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2021 Referenda in Taiwan

Turnout of Referendum Without Concurrent Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2021 Referenda in Taiwan

Po-chun Wu and Yung-ming Hsu
2023 / 11
Volume 30, No.2

pp.85-122
10.6612/tjes.202311_30(2).0003
Paper

Appendix

Abstract

This study examines the shifts in voter turnout during Taiwan’s two referenda in 2018 and 2021, resulting from the transition from concurrent elections to separate ones. The research reveals a relationship between referendum turnout and the percentage of young voters when they are no longer held concurrently with general elections. In 2018, regions with a higher proportion of young voters experienced higher participation in referenda, whereas in 2021, areas with a lower percentage of young voters displayed increased turnout. Furthermore, even after controlling for the level of higher education among the population and the political party in power at the town levels, an inverse relationship between the proportion of young voters and turnout remained consistent. When referenda were decoupled from general elections, a higher percentage of young voters was associated with lower overall turnout, and the relationship between higher education and turnout was found to be insignificant. When comparing changes in turnout between cities not governed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a significant increase in turnout was observed in DPP-led areas in 2021. This suggests that when referenda were decoupled from general elections, the ruling party became more proactive in mobilizing voters. Furthermore, an analysis of approval votes indicates that higher turnout encourages more approval votes. However, in the context of reduced turnout during nonconcurrent elections, the proportion of approval votes also decreased accordingly.

Keywords

cost of voting

concurrent elections

referendum participation

voter turnout

youth population