Journal of Electoral Studies

Issues

Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 The Issue Effect of the ＂92 Consensus＂ on 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election: An Application and Empirical Assessment of Propensity Score Matching

The Issue Effect of the ＂92 Consensus＂ on 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election: An Application and Empirical Assessment of Propensity Score Matching

Chih-Cheng Meng
2014 / 05
Volume 21, No.1

pp.1-45
10.6612/tjes.2014.21.01.01-45
Paper

Abstract

News and many public comments indicate that the ＂92 consensus＂ was the crucial issue to affect the result of Taiwan 2012 presidential election. This paper aims to study the effect of the 92 consensus on voters' choices in 2012. This paper reviews the core assumptions, boundary of application and analytical methods of the ＂issue voting＂ theory. Moreover, it focus on studying the impacts of the 92 consensus that are presumed to be endogenously correlated with party identification. Based on the approach of ＂studying the effects of a cause＂, as well as using the ＂2012 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study＂ dataset (TEDS2012-T and TEDS2012), this paper applies ＂propensity score matching＂ (PSM) method to investigate the issue effect of the ＂92 consensus＂ on voting choices during 2012 election. The results from the data analysis demonstrate that positions supportive of the ＂92 consensus＂ account for about twenty percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters in the period of the electoral campaign; meanwhile, positions oppositional to the ＂92 consensus＂ would contribute about thirteen percent of supporting rates for pro-Tsai voters. After the election the influential probability of the ＂92 consensus＂ was dramatically downsized to ten percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters; however, the percentage for pro-Tsai voters was slightly reduced to twelve percent. These findings provide more valid and credible estimates toward the influential probability of the ＂92 consensus＂ issue during the 2012 elections. Moreover, the statistical findings over various time-points also verify the successful transformation of the ＂92 consensus＂ to be identified as a salient issue across pro-Ma and pro-Tsai voters. It indeed achieved substantial influences toward the processes and result of 2012 presidential election.

Keywords

92 consensus

2012 Taiwan presidential election

issue voting

propensity score matching

cross-strait relations