Journal of Electoral Studies

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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Don't Ask Me! I'm Not Interested in Politics: An Analysis of Topic Effect and the Turnout Overestimate in TEDS

Don't Ask Me! I'm Not Interested in Politics: An Analysis of Topic Effect and the Turnout Overestimate in TEDS

Chi-Lin Tsai
2010 / 11
Volume 17, No.2

pp.135-175
10.6612/tjes.2010.17.02.135-175
Paper

Abstract

Literature of ”topic effect” suggests that people who are interested in the survey topic are more willing to participate in the interview, so the estimates of the survey items that are associated with the topic tend to be exaggerated. Given that politics and election are the focal points of Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), this paper explores whether the topic effect is one of the major causes to overestimate turnout rates in TEDS. The finding of the aggregate-level analysis shows that the turnout overestimate in TEDS is more serious than that in Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS). Since two survey projects have a lot in common except topics, their difference in turnout estimates may result from the topic effect. The individual-level analysis also indicates that the correlation between respondents' propensity to vote and their propensity to participate in TEDS is positive, which conforms to the theoretical expectation of topic effect. Generally speaking, the hypotheses are confirmed by both analyses. However, the conclusions are based on some untested assumptions; therefore future TEDS could use special survey design to further check and cope with the topic effect and turnout overestimate.

Keywords

topic effect

turnout overestimate

over-representative

over-report