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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 The Types of Independent Voters and Their Voting Behavior: Some Observations from Taiwan' 2008 Presidential Election

The Types of Independent Voters and Their Voting Behavior: Some Observations from Taiwan' 2008 Presidential Election

Jong-Tian Wang
2010 / 11
Volume 17, No.2

pp.35-69
10.6612/tjes.2010.17.02.35-69
Paper

Abstract

This study aims to examine the dispute within literature concerning independent voters, differentiate independent voters in Taiwan, and therefore explore factors affecting their vote choices. Through analysis of the data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study, 2008 (TEDS2008P): Presidential Election, the preliminary findings are as follows: first, there are at least three major disputes in the literature, including the conceptualization and typology of independent voters, the measurement and operationalization of independent voters, and the explanation of why and how people become independent voters. Second, there is indeed a substantial distinction between pure independents and independent leaners in Taiwan. Third, short-term party preference and the overall evaluation of candidates are the two most significant factors affecting independents' vote choices. In addition, retrospective voting exerts different level of effect on these two independents. Specifically, while satisfaction with the incumbent plays more important role on independent leaners than on pure independents, overall evaluation of candidates seems to affect pure independents more than its counterpart. The explanatory power of party preference, however, is uniform to both kinds of voters.

Keywords

pure independents

independent leaners

party identification

retrospective voting