Journal of Electoral Studies

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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Election and Its Implications on Cross-Strait Relations: The Effects of Taiwanese Identity, Trade Interests and Military Threats

Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Election and Its Implications on Cross-Strait Relations: The Effects of Taiwanese Identity, Trade Interests and Military Threats

Lu-Huei Chen, Shu Keng, and T. Y. Wang
2009 / 11
Volume 16, No.2

pp.1-22
10.6612/tjes.2009.16.02.01-22
Paper

Abstract

Based on the analysis of survey data collected on the eve of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, our study seeks to clarify the effects of the following factors on the island citizens' voting behavior: (1)Taiwanese identity, (2)expected benefits from cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (3)the perceived likelihood of China's use of military force. The findings show that, in addition to party identification, both Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on the islanders' vote choices. Unexpectedly, China's military threats played an insignificant role in voters' decisions. Because Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits are at the center of the political discourse on cross-Strait relations, future interactions between Taiwan and China will continue to play a significant role in the island's politics.

Keywords

cross-Strait relations

Taiwan's presidential election

Taiwan identity

calculation of interests

military threats