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Spatial Perspectives and Analysis on Voting Behavior-A Case Study of the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election

Jinn-Guey Lay, Ko-Hua Yap, and Chy-Chang Chang
2007 / 05
Volume 14, No.1

pp.33-60
10.6612/tjes.2007.14.01.33-60

Abstract

Spatial perspectives were seldom applied on the study of voting behavior in Taiwan in the past. However, the regional differentiation of voting behavior had been generally attended. Moreover, it would certainly dominate the division of Single-Member Districts and the eventual outcome. The authors attempt to explore spatial issues in electoral studies in this article. First, by defining spatial effects as spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependency, it could be then revealed how it influenced voting behavior. Secondly, indicators of spatial autocorrelation and the spatial regression model are introduced to explore and examine spatial effects. In the later half of the article, the 2004 Taiwan presidential election is taken as an empirical example to support three hypotheses: 1) similar voting are spatially clustered, in other words, voting are similar among neighboring communities; 2) residuals in the classical regression model exhibited regional differentiation that reveals spatial heterogeneity; 3) contiguous voters can still be affected even the social factors such as age, education, industry, income and ethnicity have been controlled (a revelation of the dominance of spatial dependence). The authors thus conclude that it shall always be taken into consideration regarding where the voters live.

Keywords

spatial autocorrelation

spatial dependence

spatial heterogeneity

spatial regression model

voting behavior