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Bi-Polarizing the Politics: Explaining the 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

Chia-Hung Tsai, Yong-Ming Hsu, and Hsiu-Tin Huang
2007 / 05
Volume 14, No.1

pp.1-31
10.6612/tjes.2007.14.01.01-31

Abstract

When opinions are polarized in a bimodal pattern, parties will occupy the two poles of the political issue, retaining the support of the extremists. According to rational choice theory, on the other hand, voters have inadequate time to collect political information, thus they need a clear shortcut to reach decisions. Our first proposition is that issue polarizat ion will happen when political parties have long-term stances on certain issues. Our second proposition is that individual's issue position will decide one's voting behavior when polarization happens. To prove these two propositions, we examine how national identity and unification/independence issue transformed to the referendum issue in the 2004 presidential election. Our finding shows that whether or not picking up the referendum ballots indeed turned a polarized issue and it influenced voting behavior.

Keywords

bi-polarization

political party

presidential election

referendum