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Study of Impacts of Reference Groups and Third-Person Effect on Voters' Willingness to Express Opinion in Taipei County Magistrate' s Election in 2001

Tzong-Horng Dzwo and Mei-Feng Chou
2004 / 11
Volume 11, No.2

pp.163-183
10.6612/tjes.2004.11.02.163-183
Paper

Abstract

This study applied “Spiral of Silence Theory” to testing voters’ willingness to express opinions publicly during the Taipei County Magistrate’ s Election in 2001. The findings supported the hypothesis of “Spiral of Silence Theory”. Voters were more willing to express opinions publicly when their perceptions of the distribution of public opinion were the same as their own. Taking “third-person effect” as the mediating factor, one who believed others would be more influenced by mass media than him/herself was more likely to express his/her own opinion given that the candidate he/ she supported was the same as considered to be elected in the election. Regarding the impact of reference groups on voters’ willingness to express their opinions, only when voters and their relatives (or friends) supported the same candidate, did the former tend to openly express opinions. However, the effect of reference groups was cancelled out when voters’ opinion was identical with their perceptions of the distribution of public opinion. In this election, voters perceived the public opinion climate through the mass media instead of through reference groups.

Keywords

Spiral of Silence Theory

public opinion

reference groups

third-person effect