Journal of Electoral Studies

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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.2 Media, Opinion Polls and Issues - A Study of the Changes and Stability of Public Opinion during Campaign

Media, Opinion Polls and Issues - A Study of the Changes and Stability of Public Opinion during Campaign

Emile C. J. Sheng
2004 / 05
Volume 11, No.1

pp.73-98
10.6612/tjes.2004.11.01.73-98
Paper

Abstract

This Study discusses the differences between journalists and political scientists while observing and predicting elections, and examines whether there are discrepancies between the media's schema and the public's interest during campaign. Overall speaking, political scientists are able to predict or explain voting behavior months before the election, using demographic variables such as partisanship, unification/independence stance, ethnic identity, gender, and age with considerable stability and accuracy (Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992; Rosenstone, 1983). However, from the perspective of media report, candidates' support ratings rise and fall along with campaign strategies and news events, public opinion seems to be variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, this article would like to first provide a plausible explanation to the above dilemma. Subsequently, the author would like to examine the media focus during campaign to see if their coverage reflects the issues people deem important. Empirical data shows that the media operates on its own logic, and there is a considerable gap between media campaign coverage and the issues people care most about.

Keywords

election prediction

media report

opinion polls

voting behavior

content analysis

game schema

governing schema