Journal of Electoral Studies

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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Voter Turnout and Economic Adversity in Taiwan

Voter Turnout and Economic Adversity in Taiwan

Meng-Li Yang
2003 / 11
Volume 10, No.2

pp.159-191
10.6612/tjes.2003.10.02.159-191
Paper

Abstract

I investigated the effects of adversity on voter turnout in Taiwan. In addition to testing three exclusive hypotheses regarding turnout in economic adversity, I borrowed and expanded the economic voting theory to better understand the effects. Before doing this, I also constructed a non-voting electorate’s profile, to serve as a base for the economic adversity model. Date were drawn from the ’2001 Taiwan Election and Democratization Survey’ and analyzed in a 2-level logistic regression model. The result did not support any of the three hypotheses. Pessimistic views of future economic condition reduced turnout possibility, which was similar to the ’sociotropic voting’ theory in that only perception of the society’s future matters in the voting decision. Attributing the problem to the government and naming economy as the first priority for improvement significantly improved voting probability. Regarding the non-voting electorate’s profile, older people and less educated people were more likely to vote. This last finding was contradictory to American literature. Women and membership in unions or social groups marginally improved turnout rate. As to psychological factors, only electorate’s own interest in politics, political knowledge and partisanship were effective factors for turnout; evaluations and the system and government responsiveness did not matter.

Keywords

Turnout

economic adversity

logistic regression

HLM