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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Voting Utility and Choice Decision in 2001 Election: The Application of Spatial Voting Theory in Different Electoral Systems

Voting Utility and Choice Decision in 2001 Election: The Application of Spatial Voting Theory in Different Electoral Systems

Ding-Ming Wang
2003 / 05
Volume 10, No.1

pp.171-206
10.6612/tjes.2003.10.01.171-206
Paper

Abstract

This paper is to explore how the policy issues affected the voting behavior in the 2001 election based on the spatial theory of voting. It applies Conditional Logit methodology, which is more appropriate and correct than Multinomial Logit in analyzing the impact of policy on voting behavior. This paper also points out a restriction that many discrete choice models have overlooked - the property of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) and as a matter, introduces the Hausman Test to exam the coefficient stability. The results show that the voting behavior is significantly different under different electoral systems. Essentially, the policy issues, including the unification-independence issue, economic policy, welfare policy, influence the voting decision more profoundly in county magistrate election, than in the legislative election. In addition, those who prefer unification with China, economic development, more social welfare, and political stability are pro KMT, PSP or NP. On the other hand, the voters who favor independent from China, environment protection, fewer social welfare, and political revolution, are pro DDP and TSU.

Keywords

Spatial Theory

Directional Theory

conditional Logit

Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives(ⅡA)