Journal of Electoral Studies

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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Split-Ticket Voting in 1998 Taipei Mayoral and City Council Elections

Split-Ticket Voting in 1998 Taipei Mayoral and City Council Elections

Yi-Ming Wu
2001 / 05
Volume 8, No.1

pp.159-209
10.6612/tjes.2001.08.01.159-209
Paper

Abstract

It is generally assumed that strong grassroots support ensures thatTaiwanese legislators get support from the same voters over repeated elections.This paper attempts to test this hypothesis.We look at each candidate'sstrongest areas in each election.By comparing these areas overseveral elections,we can search for evidence of instability in his or hervote support.In general,we find that there is far less stability in support patternsthan might be expected.It is rare that all of a candidate's strongest areasin one election are included in his or her strongest areas in subsequentelections.In other words,many legislators have been elected and reelectedwith significantly different patterns of support.For the overwhelmingmajority of candidates,the crucial variable in determining stabilityis the size of their hometowns.Candidates from large townshipsgenerally have more stable support,while those from smaller townshipshave less stable support.

Keywords

ecological fallacy

split-ticket voting

Taipei election

strategic voting