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Ticket Splitting: The 1998 Taipei City Mayoral Election

Sheng-Mao Hsu
2001 / 05
Volume 8, No.1

pp.117-158
10.6612/tjes.2001.08.01.117-158
Paper

Abstract

Voting tendencies has been the focus of political field.Due to thelimitations of the secretive voting system,the only way to learn each individual'svoting preferences is to take polls.However,the reliability ofthe poll results is questionable.One thing that we can be sure of is thatthe voting results reflect every citizen's decision.It would be a risk of ecologicalfallacy if one hypothesizes the voting attitude based on the votingresult.Based on the voting result in the Taipei election of 1998,first ofall,this thesis gives an analysis of the phenomenon of split-ticket votingbetween political parties in City Mayor and City congress.ApplyingKing's EI model analyzes how citizens chose their desired candidates amongthe three political parties.It also experimentally applies the statisticsmethods to lower the risk of ecological fallacy.So it turns out that asexpected,the supporters of the New Party adapt split-ticket voting byvoting KMT's candidate Mao Ying-jo.The rate of split-ticket votingreaches 98.29%.In addition,split-ticket voting also happens to the supportersof KMT's congress.The voters in split-ticket voting vote forDPP's City Mayor candidate Chen Shuei-Bien.The split-ticket votingrate registers 48.28%.

Keywords

split ticket voting

Taipei City elections

party dealignment

ethnic background

checks and balances

strategic voting