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An Attempt to Reduce the Error of Election Prediction: JIA Model
This thesis using individual level survey data to analyze the developingand changing situation of independent voters in Taiwan from 1989through 1999.In particular,this thesis examines changing party identificationand social background of independent voters,changing political involvementamong independent voters,changing vote intentions of independentvoters,and the facts which have influenced the develop of independentvoters.Our research outcomes have shown that although the percentageof independent voters in Taiwan has declined,in recent years thistrend seems to have reversed,The percentage of independent voters hasactually been influenced by changes in the electoral system.There are differencesin social background between independents and party identifiers.The degree of political involvement of independent voters is lower thanthat of party identifiers.Their evaluation of candidates and parties is alsolower than those of party identifiers.They tend to stay neutral to all politicalissues.when making their voting decisions,they tend to consider theconditions of the candidates,rather than voting by the boundary ofparties.However,we also discover that independent voters are graduallyevolving from”apathetic independent voters”,with lower politicalknowledge and lower political involvement,to”ideal independentvoters”,with higher political knowledge and higher political involvement.Looking to the future,we can predict that the percentage of independentvoters will likely decline.With the continuing development ofdemocracy and the increasing maturity and stability of party politics,weexpect that the percentage of party indentifiers will grow.However,thisdoes not necessarily mean that the percentage of independent voters willdecline dramatically.Because of the expectation that independent votersare the ideal citizens,we believe that there are still a certain percentage ofpeople who will consider themselves as independent voters.Hence,independentvoters increasingly will not be”apathetic independent voters”who know nothing about politics.On the contrary,they will become”ideal citizens”who keep highly concerned about politics and make politicaldecisions according to their own subjective attitudes.
