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Homenavigate_nextIssuesnavigate_nextBackissuesnavigate_nextVolume 31, No.1navigate_nextChange and Continuity of Party Identification among the Electorate in Taiwan
Change and Continuity of Party Identification among the Electorate in Taiwan
I demonstrated change and continuity of party identification among the electorate in Taiwan by examining longitudinal survey data, and exploring factors affected people's party identification among different political generations. It was shown that voters among three generations had stable partisan affiliation toward the KMT in 1992, 1995, and 1998.Voters among elder generations had more stable party identification than voters among younger generation. As to the DPP supporters, the proportions increased continuously between 1992 and 1998, but the proportion of the DPP supporters was the lowest among voters of elder generation. When people's ethnic backgrounds were considered, I find that the distribution of the KMT identifiers was very stable among Taiwanese(Min-nan-jun),and the proportion of the DPP supporters among Taiwanese increased continuously. However, two new parties, i. e., the DPP and the NP, were less likely to attract first-generation Taiwanese. Few second-generation Taiwanese preferred the NP, but they were more likely to support the DPP than the KMT in 1998. Among Taiwanese, third-generation voters were more likely to support the NP. As to mainlanders, there were more than 80% of them identified themselves as the KMT partisans, the proportion decreased to 40% in 1995 but it rebounded to 60% in 1998.The proportion of the DPP partisans among mainlanders was less than 5% between 1992 and 1998.The proportion of the NP identifiers fluctuated dramatically among mainlanders between 1995 and1998. As to voters among three political generations, I demonstrated that Chinese identity was an important factor to determine first-generation voters' KMT identification. First-generation voters decided their DPP identification by their Taiwan-independence stance. As to voters among second generation, their stances on the issue of unification with mainland China versus Taiwan independence tended to determine whether they identified themselves as KMT or as DPP partisans. As voters among third generation, they were more likely to employ their Taiwan-independence stance and Taiwanese identity to decide whether they want to support the DPP.
