Journal of Electoral Studies

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Presidential Voting of 1996 in Taiwan: An Analysis

Lu-Huei Chen
1998 / 11
Volume 5, No.2

pp.161-184
Paper

Abstract

In this paper, I use a multinomial logit model to explain how voters decided their votes in the 1996 Presidential election in Tai-wan. Generally, a voter's party identification and evaluation toward three major candidates played important roles on his or her vote choice in this election. The political climate, popularity among the four candidates and the distribution of partisans, favored President Lee Teng-hui. His maintaining economic prosperity and attraction to those middle-of-the-road voters also helped him to win this elec-tion. Both Mr. Peng Ming-min and Lin Yang-kang got their support from those with higher education and with the feeling of the nation-al economy being worse. As to voters' ethnic identity, people iden-tifying themselves as Taiwanese inclined to support Mr. Peng. However, Mr. Lin did not gain advantage from those whom with Chinese identity. On the "social welfare v. economic development" issue, respondents with being closer to "social welfare" stances tend-ed to support Mr. Peng. On the "reform v. status quo" issue, Mr. Peng's supporters came from those whose stances being closer to "reform."

Keywords

Election

Multinomial logit model

Presidential election

Taiwan

Voting behavior