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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 The 1996 Presidential Election Prediction: A Test of the Voting Behavior Model of No-Response Voters in the Poll

The 1996 Presidential Election Prediction: A Test of the Voting Behavior Model of No-Response Voters in the Poll

Liu, Nien-hsia
1996 / 11
Volume 3, No.2

pp.131-155
Paper

Abstract

By using the following three variables: candidate image evaluation, expected capability in solving problem, and voter's party preference in predicting in 1996 presidential, this study demonstrates that the findings have been highly close to election result, with the difference falling within three percent. The model has also been proved stable in terms of its minor variable in prediction throughout the three different testing time frame. The major findings of this study can be summed up as following: first of all, a no-response voter could vote for the candidate who was ranked first in image evaluation; secondary, problem-solving capability will be the second electoral decisive factor for a no-response voter, if he/she could not decide which candidate scores highest; thirdly, if a no-response repondent can decide which candidate could be the most capable one, he/she would vote accordingly, otherwise he/she tends to vote for the candidate with the same party affiliation; fourthly, those could not be screened out through the preceding process are, to an extent, inclined to vote for the DPP's candidates than for the counterparts of the rest two parties.

Keywords

Election prediction

Voting behavior

Public opinion poll