選舉研究

期刊瀏覽

首頁期刊瀏覽歷期出版第三十一卷第一期 Geographical Voting Bases and the Stability of Candidates' Voter Coalitions(1989~1998)

Geographical Voting Bases and the Stability of Candidates' Voter Coalitions(1989~1998)

Nathan Batto
2001年05月
8卷 1期

頁:211-251
10.6612/tjes.2001.08.01.211-251
本文

摘要

There are three types of error in Taiwan's election prediction:errorsfrom survey process,transplanting of measure scale,and no response voter.This paper try to reduce the error of election prediction via”Joined IdiosyncrasiesAdjusted Model”(JIA Model).JIA Model was operated bytwo stages.First,I compute a basic model,which reflects some generalfactors in every county.Secondly,I design extended model to adjust theoutput of basic model.In JIA Model,I try to use logistic regression tocompute the candidate's ballots,and present the final prediction in probability.In this paper,I try to explain in example of 1997 Taipei MayoralElection.I consider the factors of issue orientation,strategic voting,socialcontext and political map.JIA Model made the error less than samplingerrors.

關鍵詞

campaign strategy

political geography

electoral base

electoral stability