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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Negative Partisanship and Voting Choice: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan, 2004-2020

Negative Partisanship and Voting Choice: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan, 2004-2020

Hung-i Lee and Yu-tzung Chang
2022 / 11
Volume 29, No.2

pp.35-72
10.6612/tjes.202211_29(2).0002
Paper

Appendix

Abstract

The bitter rivalries that used to occur only among political elites have now reached the everyday lives of the mass public. In particular, the results of presidential elections have been driven as much by affective conflict between partisans as by policy debates. The present study explores affective polarization in Taiwan through negative partisanship. Data from presidential elections between 2004 and 2020 provide evidence for the effect of negative partisanship on election results. The study found that starting in 2012, there has been a rapid increase in negative views among partisans in both main parties toward the opposing party. In the 2020 presidential election, more than 40% of both Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters showed negative partisanship towards the opposing party. Furthermore, supporters of both parties had the lowest ever favorability scores for the opposing party. Even when traditional party identification and support for independence or reunification are controlled, negative partisanship still has significant explanatory power. The decision to vote for a candidate from a particular party in presidential elections depends not only on one’s long-term identification with that party but also on whether one harbors a strong negative opinion towards the opposing party.

Keywords

negative partisanship

affective polarization

presidential election

Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS)

Taiwan