Journal of Electoral Studies

Issues

Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Post-Stratified Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election

Post-Stratified Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election

Wen-jong Juang, Mei-rong Lin, and Yung-tai Hung
2022 / 05
Volume 29, No.1

pp.69-118
10.6612/tjes.202205_29(1).0003
Paper

Appendix

Abstract

The controversy over the authenticity of election polls or the representativeness of samples is the definition of “population” in election polls. Since voter turnout is not absolute, there is a difference between “eligible population” and “voter population”. Therefore, the demographic consistency between eligible population and voter population with different sample frames in election polls is a topic that has become crucial in survey methodology. The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) exploring the error of population coverage through reviewing the evolution of different sampling frames used in election polls in Taiwan; (2) clarifying the implication of eligible population and voter population in election studies and analyzing the 2016 presidential election campaign in Taiwan; (3) analyzing the difference of the polls conducted by TEDS for the 2016 presidential election by using different sample frames, and examining the effect of the weighting adjustment by population parameters, and exploring its theoretical and practical implications.
This study found that there was a minor difference between the eligible population and the voter population in the 2016 presidential election in Taiwan. However, the polls from different sampling frames were not completely consistent with the polls from these two populations. The correction effect of the weighting adjustment by the different population parameter on voter turnout, vote gain, and encouraging voter participation is limited. Therefore, to resolve the gap between the poll results and the voting results, the definition of the population might not be critical. The selection of sample frames, the design of questionnaires, the improvement of interview skills, and the reduction of interview failures are more important factors.

Keywords

eligible population

voter population

sampling frame

address-based sampling.