Journal of Electoral Studies

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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public’s Ally Preferences between the United States and China

Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public’s Ally Preferences between the United States and China

Alex Min-wei Lin and Chung-li Wu
2019 / 11
Volume 26, No.2

pp.87-112
10.6612/tjes.201911_26(2).0004
Paper

Abstract

This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens’ views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan- Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.

Keywords

US-China relations

ambivalence theory

ally selection

public opinion