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The Measurement of Latent Variables and Its Effects: An Analysis of Taiwanese Attitudes on the Independence-Unification Issue in 2013

Tsung-Han Tsai and Chang-Chih Lin
2015 / 05
Volume 22, No.1

pp.71-107
10.6612/tjes.2015.22.01.71-107
Paper

Abstract

In this article, we focus on the measurement of Taiwanese attitudes on the independence-unification issue, and argue that, when analysts are not certain about how measurement errors influence the results of analysis, the best way is to take measurement errors into account in their analyses. Based on the methodology of generalized latent variable modeling, we treat Taiwanese attitudes on the independence-unification issue as unobserved, latent variables, which are measured by several manifest indicators, and evaluate the effect of these attitudes on party identification. Analyzing survey data from the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project conducted in 2013, we show that, first, Taiwanese attitudes on the independence-unification issue includes three types: principled supporters of independence, conditional supporters of independence, and conditional supporters of unification. Second, as shown in most of the studies on Taiwan politics, the stronger the voters prefer unification, the more likely they lean toward pan-blue parties, and vice versa.

Keywords

measurement error

generalized latent variable models

Bayesian methods

independence-unification issue