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A Panel Study for Japanese Bicameral System under Koizumi's Governance: An Application of Hybrid Method of Fixed and Random Effect Models
The framework of legislative institution and electoral systems have played a significant role in modern democracies. Every Countries based on the differents of historical, political, and social backgrounds, that adopted different legislative and electoral systems that usually result in particular political consequences. For examples, the representation of public opinions, the policy-making process, the competition between different political camps, and most importantly the formation of party systems. This study, by applying Japan as an example, tries to analyze the political and electoral influences made by its legislative framework and electoral system; especially the 2003 and 2004 Japanese Diet Elections under Junichiro Koizumi's governance. The importance of Japanese Diet relies not simply on the bicameral system regulated by its post-war Constitution, but also the various electoral systems for House of Councilors and House of Representatives. Because of the unique institutional establishment, the check and balance between two Houses has increased and become an importance issue in Japanese politics. With the assistance of individual panel data from Japanese Election Study (JES), and take advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, we observe this important institutional conflict empirically and effectively during the period of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Although the results reveal the substantial vote-flows between the ruling and the opposition parties in the House of Representatives and Councilors elections, which support the institution effect of check and balance, we also find that Koisumi charisma makes a considerable influence to offset the vote-flows from the ruling party to the opposition. In addition, we also find the factor of party identification influence the voters' decisions not only exist between subjects, but also within subjects over time; especially support toward the main opposition party DPJ. Most importantly, the result also reveals that the opposite party may become full-fledged during these elections.
