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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.2 The Study on Relationships among Presidential Vote Rate, Local Grants, and Schedule Arrangement

The Study on Relationships among Presidential Vote Rate, Local Grants, and Schedule Arrangement

Chun-Ta Lee
2010 / 11
Volume 17, No.2

pp.71-102
10.6612/tjes.2010.17.02.71-102
Paper

Abstract

It's an interesting subject that the visiting schedule of the president and vice-president is based on the premise of limited time, which might indicate an important research that related to the distributive politics. With the calculation of the township trips of the highest executive leaders in Taiwan, the number would be taken as a dependent variable, so as to analyze the model of schedule arrangements and to contrast the model to two basic models, ”swing voters model” and ”support groups model”. According to the results of Tobit regression analysis, the consideration for visiting schedule of former president Chen and vice-president Lu is basically decided by the chances to seek reelection. Being the president and vice-president for the first term and ready to be the candidates for the second term, Chen and Lu arranged more local trips to townships whose political tendency are categorized as swing groups in the previous election. Successfully winning the second term of presidency, however, Chen and Lu's visiting schedule shifts to support model; they turned to townships whose vote rates were higher than others in the reelection and townships where received more benefit during their first term.

Keywords

distributive politics

Tobit regression

Presidential Office Gazette

presidential schedule

vote rate