Journal of Electoral Studies

Issues

Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Stability and Change of Party Identification among Taiwanese Voters: A Panel Data Analysis

Stability and Change of Party Identification among Taiwanese Voters: A Panel Data Analysis

Shing-Yuan Sheng
2010 / 11
Volume 17, No.2

pp.1-33
10.6612/tjes.2010.17.02.01-33
Paper

Abstract

This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals' present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.

Keywords

party identification

party preference

party system

panel data

political generations