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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Applying Brand Awareness to Election Prediction: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan's Election Survey Data

Applying Brand Awareness to Election Prediction: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan's Election Survey Data

Chin-Ho Lee, Miin-Jye Wen, and Yin-Tai Chen
2010 / 05
Volume 17, No.1

pp.1-19
10.6612/tjes.2010.17.01.01-19
Paper

Abstract

Most survey institutions in Taiwan take directly inquiry method to get the candidate supporting ratio these days, such as ”If the election was held tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for?” However, nearly 30 percent of respondents won't show their opinions even before Election Day, and unfortunately, these respondents' may decide the election result. Therefore, the election prediction model which policy makers use to estimate the present and potential support ratio is regarded as important. Brand awareness is the extent that consumers are easy to remind or know some characteristics of the brand. It's a tool helps consumers to simplify the product information and to make the decision quickly. Hence, based on the brand awareness theory of marketing and information from polls, this paper develops an election prediction model which includes estimation of the unknown opinion response. This paper takes three examples to investigate the effective of a new model as follows: the 2005 Kuomintang party chairman election, 2008 legislative election of the second electoral district in Tainan, and 2008 president election. The findings reveal that an election prediction model constructed using brand awareness theory and voter's request indicator can fully reflect the voting intention and the election result even though it is influenced by changing internal and external environment. Therefore, this model performs well on both the accuracy of the model and the simplicity of the computation process.

Keywords

voter's request indicator

brand awareness

evoked set

brand recall

flow in and out