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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Keys to County Magistrate Elections in Taiwan: From 1989 to 2005

Keys to County Magistrate Elections in Taiwan: From 1989 to 2005

Emile C. J. Sheng
2008 / 05
Volume 15, No.1

pp.1-18
10.6612/tjes.2008.15.01.01-18
Paper

Abstract

This article attempts to study the keys affecting county magistrate (city mayor) elections, accumulating potential factors across all elections from 1989 to 2001, including political environment, governmental relations, local economy, crime rate, candidate personal background, political landscape, and incumbent advantage, etc. We hope to identify and built a model of electoral success, and apply the model on the 2005 county magistrate election to check its validity. We found that nomination by the two major parties and incumbent advantage are the primary factors affecting the results of county magistrate elections. Experiences as legislators and provincial legislators also have significant positive influence on winning. On the other hand, the main factor affecting an incumbent county magistrate's chances of reelection is whether he or she got majority support in his or her first term. This shows the importance of political landscape on county magistrate elections.

Keywords

election prediction

county magistrate election

incumbent advantage