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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 A Study on the Predicted Model of Legislators' Reelection-Using Fourth Legislators for Example

A Study on the Predicted Model of Legislators' Reelection-Using Fourth Legislators for Example

I-Kan Wu
2005 / 05
Volume 12, No.1

pp.173-210
10.6612/tjes.2005.12.01.173-210
Paper

Abstract

The axis of this paper is legislators' reelections, and the purpose is to explore legislators' reelections under SNTV electoral system. At the beginning, this paper discusses the fourth legislators' reelections in the fifth legislative election then examines the relationship between the major four factors, including party, personal performance, local faction and constituency, and legislators' reelections in order to find out the important variables of affecting legislators' reelections. Finally, this paper will use binary logistic model to build ”the model of legislators' reelections” for comparing the degree of all the variables affecting legislators' reelections. Research findings show that among all the four factors, party and personal performance are the most critical ones affecting the fourth legislators' reelections in the fifth legislative election. Speaking precisely, the nomination of party and legislators' performances (including legislative performance, services of the constituency and the news-exposures in term), which compare with the other legislators' in the same constituency are the important variables affecting legislators' reelection.

Keywords

SNTV electoral system

legislator

reelection

party

personal performance

local faction

constituency