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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 The Construction of "Voter's Request Indicator" in Prediction Model applied to Election Study of "Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot"-A Case Study on 1998 Municipal Election in An-Nan District in Tainan City

The Construction of "Voter's Request Indicator" in Prediction Model applied to Election Study of "Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot"-A Case Study on 1998 Municipal Election in An-Nan District in Tainan City

Chin-Ho Lee
1999 / 05
Volume 6, No.1

pp.31-66
10.6612/tjes.1999.06.01.31-66
Paper

Abstract

Based on the theories of core demand, motivation, consumer behavior, and strategic contingencies from marketing management, this paper focused on applying marketing concepts to the prediction of voter's voting behavior. In this research, the idea of using ”product attribute” in marketing management, has constituted a good prediction model with ”Voter's Request Indicator”. Before the 1997 ”Many candidates participate in an election and there is only one elected” Tainan Mayoral Election, the said concept had been applied and indeed brought about effective voting rate prediction. Furthermore, the 1998 Municipal Election in An-Nan District in Tainan City has again proved the model of ” Voter's Request Indicator” can be applied to predict the results of ”Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot” election. A1though being limited by the current telecommunication system, the sampling can hardly be divided between Lin (a small community unit which consists of a number of families in the same neighborhood) or Li (a neighborhood). With some correction, according to some status quo, I compare the model with the data collected by experts, this paper has shown strong merits.Hence, in this research the following points will be explored:1. Can marketing management theory also be applied well in the prediction of voter's voting behavior in terms of ”Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot” municipal election?2. Is ”Candidates' Attributes” the premise or blood relationship, place connection, popularity can be one important cause while voting?3. Can using the model be a true reaction of status quo, with proficiency, compared with ”Many candidates participate in an election and there is only one elected” election?4. Three days before the election, voters' strategic voting might effect the results greatly, especially ”Many candidates participate in an election and many are by ballot” How do election predictions adjust to the situation?5. What will be the future development of the model?This paper has come to the conclusion that using the model of ”Voter's Request Indicator” indeed can predict voter's voting behavior correctly.

Keywords

Election Prediction

Voter's Request Indicator

Product Attribute

Deep Interviews

Product Core Demand