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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 The Construction of "Voter's Request Indicator" in Election Prediction Model Based on "Product Attribute" in Marketing Management--A Case Study on 1997 Tainan Mayoral Election

The Construction of "Voter's Request Indicator" in Election Prediction Model Based on "Product Attribute" in Marketing Management--A Case Study on 1997 Tainan Mayoral Election

Chin-Ho Lee and Miin-Jye Wen
1998 / 11
Volume 5, No.2

pp.1-33
Paper

Abstract

The most challenging in “Election Prediction” is that the an-swer is right there after voting; hence, the way of precise prediction affects an election greatly. In practical experience, with the way of “Direct Inquiry” to predict the rate of ballot, there is still a large amount of “refusal to answers,” “having no ideas” voters. Appar-ently, in comparison with the prediction and the result, the way un-derestimates the rate of ballot of each candidate. Hence, it is not easy to precisely predict the rate of ballot of each candidate. In 1997 Tainan Mayoral Election, seven candidates are all first rate, so that the campaign was keenly competitive. The study is based on the above-mentioned election to explore that voter’s be-havior-Candidate orientation is the most crucial factor for the elec-tion, and to construct “Voter’s Request Indicator” in “Election Pre-diction Model” referred to the idea of “Product Attribute” in Mar-keting Management. The design of “Voter’s Request Indicator” is mainly contributed by the candidates’ attributes (condition, charac-teristics). After the preliminary investigation, with the amount of voter’s request, we acquire the result of the rate of ballot of each candidate in accordance with adjustment, amendment and estima-tion. The model is verified several times, the result shows the goals of the easy process of operation and the fast precise reflection of the reality. Further, “Election Prediction” is defined in the unprof-itable sphere, so it can achieve the integration of the theories of Marketing Management and the election.

Keywords

Election prediction

Product attribute

Direct inquiry

Voter's request indicator