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Transnational Rally Effects during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis

  •  Zi-qing Zhao, Yen-pin Su
  •  2026 / 05  

    Volume 33, No.1

     

    pp.83-124

  •  10.6612/tjes.202605_33(1).0003

Abstract

This study aims to examine the variation in individuals’ approval of their national leaders during national crises. Previous studies indicate that international crises tend to increase citizens’ approval of governments and political incumbents. Such a sudden spike in public approval during times of crisis reflects the “rally-round-the-flag” effect. However, since the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, existing research on the rally effect has shown mixed results. While most studies have focused on singlecountry surveys, few utilize cross-national survey data. To fill the gap in the literature, this study uses cross-national panel survey data and adopts multilevel models to test hypotheses about rally effects in the COVID-19 crisis. The findings of this study are threefold. Firstly, individuals with a heightened fear of the pandemic were more likely to support their national leaders. Secondly, in countries with higher COVID-19 death tolls, citizens tended to exhibit greater support for their national leaders. Thirdly, in countries with more stringent policies to cope with the pandemic, citizens demonstrated higher levels of support for their national leaders. Overall, this study facilitates a better understanding of the rally-round-the-flag effect, and it also provides important policy implications for political behavior in times of crisis.